我国体育产业发展对城乡居民消费溢出效应的作用及优化  

Analysis on the Spillover Effect of the Development of China's Sports Industry on the Consumption Level of Urban and Rural Residents

作　　者：李国[1] 马肇国 孙庆祝[3] LI Guo;MA Zhaoguo;SUN Qingzhu(College of Physical Education,Nanjing Technology University,Nanjing 211816,China;Department of Physical Education,Nanjing Finance University,Nanjing 210023,China;College of Physical Education,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210023,China)

机构地区：[1]南京工业大学体育学院,南京211816 [2]南京财经大学体育部,南京210023 [3]南京师范大学体育科学学院,南京210023

出　　处：《西安体育学院学报》2023年第5期532-541,共10页Journal of Xi'an Physical Education University

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(20BTY047)。

摘　　要：运用文献资料、数理统计与VECM模型等方法,基于2006—2020年统计指标数据对我国体育产业发展的消费溢出效应进行分析。研究发现,城乡居民消费支出显著增加,体育产业发展迅速且产业结构呈非常显著性差异(χ2=874.8,P<0.01);城镇居民、乡村居民消费水平与体育产业之间均存在长期协整关系,并具有短期修正机制。在城镇居民消费方面,体育产业增加值呈正向溢出效应;在乡村居民消费方面,体育产业增加值也呈正向溢出效应,而体育产业高级化呈负向溢出效应。由此提出具体优化路径:重视溢出效应,提高体育产业对消费水平的拉动作用;审视长期均衡,优化体育产业与消费水平的协整关系;权衡脉冲方差,注重体育产业对消费水平的短期波动;优化产业结构,实现产业供给与消费水平的适配均衡。Using the methods of literature,mathematical statistics and VAR model and based on the statistical data from 2006 to 2020,analysis was executed concerning the consumption spillover effect of the development of China's sports industry.Research findings show,the consumption expenditure of urban and rural residents increased significantly from 2006 to 2020,the sports industry developed rapidly,and the industrial structure showed a very significant difference(X2=874.8,P<0.01).There is a long⁃term cointegration relationship between the consumption level of urban residents and rural residents and the sports industry,and there is a short⁃term correction mechanism.In terms of consumption of urban residents,the added value of sports industry shows a positive spillover effect.As for consumption of rural residents,the added value of sports industry shows a positive spillover effect,while the upgrading of sports industry shows a negative spillover effect.Finally,the article puts forward the way in a bid to promote sports industry.

关 键 词：体育产业 消费水平 溢出效应 

分 类 号：G80-052[文化科学—运动人体科学]