瓦斯抽采安全评价模型研究  

Study on safety evaluation model of gas extraction

作　　者：谢宏[1] 黄汉斌 XIE Hong;HUANG Hanbin(North China Institute of Science and Technology,Yanjiao,065201,China)

机构地区：[1]华北科技学院,北京东燕郊065201

出　　处：《华北科技学院学报》2023年第5期36-42,70,共8页Journal of North China Institute of Science and Technology

摘　　要：基于系统的认识观和体系的方法论,看待和处理瓦斯抽采的安全评价,概念模型和理论模型的研究必不可少。本文提出瓦斯抽采体系由自然系统、社会系统、人工系统组成,并建立瓦斯抽采三元体系概念模型。概念模型认为安全业绩是管理水平、专业水平、灾害治理状态的函数,在此基础上运用系统动力学方法,建立一个量化、动态、可反馈的煤矿瓦斯抽采三元体系SD理论模型,对瓦斯抽采稳定性水平进行评价和预测。通过确定变量,并利用SD模型进行仿真模拟,可实现瓦斯抽采稳定性水平的定量、动态预测和评价,SD模型对于安全评价有着显著的适用性。这一建模方法,可推广至复杂安全生产系统中,克服定性、孤立、静态、链式、单一化评价方法存在的问题。Based on the understanding of the system and the methodology of the system,the study of conceptual model and theoretical model is essential to view and deal with the safety evaluation of gas extraction.In this paper,the gas extraction system is composed of natural system,social system and artificial system,and the conceptual model of gas extraction ternary system is established.The conceptual model holds that safety performance is a function of management level,professional level and disaster management state.On this basis,a quantitative,dynamic and feedbackable SD theoretical model of coal mine gas extraction ternary system is established by using system dynamics method to evaluate and predict the stability level of gas extraction.By determining the variables and using the SD model for simulation,the quantitative and dynamic prediction and evaluation of the stability level of gas extraction can be realized.The SD model has significant applicability to safety evaluation.This modeling method can be extended to complex safety production systems to overcome the problems of qualitative,isolated,static,chain and single evaluation methods.

关 键 词：瓦斯抽采 三元体系 理论模型 安全评价 系统动力学 

分 类 号：TD712.6[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]