基于ANP和随机Petri网的突发事件网络舆情危机预警机制研究  

Research on the Early Warning Mechanism of Network Public Opinion Crisis for Emergencies Based on ANP and Stochastic Petri Net

作　　者：田世海 王春梦 杨文蕊 TIAN Shi-hai;WANG Chun-meng;YANG Wen-rui(School of Economics and Management,Harbin University of Science and Technology,Harbin 150000,China)

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨理工大学经济与管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150000

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2023年第10期215-224,共10页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划项目(22YJA630080);黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划项目(22SHB170)。

摘　　要：突发事件网络舆情危机一旦爆发,会引发民众心理不安,影响社会安定。为及时有效预报危机触点、预防舆论爆发和预控事态升级,研究危机预警已刻不容缓。本文首先依据突发事件网络舆情的信息属性建立预警条块指标,并采用ANP对条指标进行定权-分类-评级,得到风险度由高到低的三级风险指标(Ⅰ级、Ⅱ级和Ⅲ级);再结合预警体系框架构建了“阶梯并联式”预警机制;最后以“北京新发地疫情”为例,利用随机Petri网与马尔科夫链的同构性对预警机制进行仿真分析。结果表明,Ⅰ级和Ⅱ级风险指标实时值和增长率均与舆情危机爆发概率之间存在非线性关系,Ⅰ级、Ⅱ级和Ⅲ级风险指标增长率之间的交互关系产生了预警临界面,据此制定了预警启动规则,为有关部门提前采取针对性的防范措施提供决策参考。Once an emergency network public opinion crisis breaks out,it will cause unrest among the people and hinder social stability.In order to forecast crisis contacts in a timely and effective manner,prevent the outbreak of public opinion,and pre-control the escalation of the situation,it is urgent to study crisis warning.Firstly,the early warning block indicators are established based on the network public opinion information attributes of emergencies in this paper,the weights are determined by ANP,and the three-level risk indicators which is from high to low risk(level I,II,and III)are obtained through the cumulative weight ratio in the ABC classification method thoughts.Secondly,the“cascade-parallel”early warning mechanism based on the framework of the early warning system is designed to monitor real-time dynamics and predict the future situa⁃tion.Finally,taking the“new outbreak in Beijing”as an example,the early warning mechanism is simulated and analyzed by using the isomorphism of the Stochastic Petri Net and the Markov chain.The results show that the nonlinear relationship is found between the real-time value of level I and level II risk indicators and the prob⁃ability of occurrence of public opinion crisis,as well as the growth rate of risk indicators,and the interactive relationship among the growth rate of level I,level II and level III has produced the critical surface of early warn⁃ing.According to these analyses,the three-dimensional graph is drawn and the early warning start rule is formulated.In the rule,the interactive relationship among different indicators is considered,the early warning activation level from many aspects is judged,and the alert level is divided into three categories from small to large:yellow,orange and red,so as to provide decision-making reference for relevant departments to take targeted preventive measures in advance.

关 键 词：ANP 随机PETRI网 网络舆情 危机预警 马尔可夫链 

分 类 号：G206[文化科学—传播学]