城市轨道交通运营FTA-Apriori风险链构建方法研究  

Research on the construction method of FTA-Apriori risk chain in urban rail transit operation

作　　者：丁小兵[1] 史淦 刘志钢[1] 洪晨 DING Xiaobing;SHI Gan;LIU Zhigang;HONG Chen(School of Urban Railway Transportation,Shanghai University of Engineering Science,Shanghai 201620,China)

机构地区：[1]上海工程技术大学城市轨道交通学院,上海201620

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2023年第9期3002-3009,共8页Journal of Safety and Environment

摘　　要：为探明导致城市轨道交通运营事故发生的风险链式传导机理,构建事故风险链,提出FTA-Apriori(Fault Tree Analysis-Apriori)风险链构建方法。首先,针对城市轨道交通运营中风险灾害度高但支持度低的特点对Apriori算法进行改进,并通过灾害度与支持度二维耦合挖掘风险间的强关联规则;其次,通过FTA方法构建风险事故树,挖掘导致事故发生的风险组合,进而与强关联规则结合构建风险链。研究结果可为城市轨道交通运营风险链的构建提供一种全新的方法,进而揭示导致事故发生的风险链式传播机理,为风险链断链位置及风险精细化管控提供理论指导。To explore the risk chain transmission mechanism that leads to urban rail transit operation accidents and build the accident risk chain,the FTA-Apriori risk chain construction method is proposed.Firstly,aiming at the characteristics of a high disaster degree but low support degree of risk in urban rail transit operation,the Apriori algorithm is improved,and the strong association rules between risks are mined through the twodimensional coupling of disaster degree and support degree.Secondly,the risk accident tree is constructed through an FTA method,and the risk combination that leads to accidents is mined,and then the risk chain is constructed by combining with the strong association rules.Based on 747 cases of urban rail transit operation accidents in a city in China,13 risk merging words are extracted,and then 9 valuable association rules between risks are mined by using the improved Apriori algorithm based on disaster degree.Taking the stampede accident as an example,the causal risk combination of the accident is obtained based on the FTA method,and then combined with the association rules,3 stampede accident risk chains aare constructed.The risk chain of a stampede accident is analyzed based on the two aspects of initiation probability and risk chain risk degree.The results show that the probability of stampede accident caused by risk sources in urban rail transit operation systems is 3.95%,in which the change of confidence level of association rule I vehicle failurelarge passenger flow has the greatest impact on the probability of stampede accident;From the perspective of risk chain risk degree,the risk degree of|ATC failure→vehiclefailure→large passenger flow→stampede accident|to the urban rail transit operation system is the largest,which is 9.74%.The research results provide a new method for the construction of urban rail transit operation risk chain,reveal the risk chain transmission mechanism that leads to accidents,the probability of accidents,and the degree of insecurity,and provide theoretical

关 键 词：安全工程 城市轨道交通 FTA-Apriori 风险链 关联规则 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]