连续弯曲航道的船舶碰撞风险评估方法研究  

Study on collision risk assessment method of ship in continuous curved channel

作　　者：范中洲[1] 严啸 李锦晓 FAN Zhongzhou;YAN Xiao;LI Jinxiao(Navigation College,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,Liaoning,China;Dongying Maritime Safety Bureau,Dongying 257000,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学航海学院,辽宁大连116026 [2]东营海事局,山东东营257000

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2023年第10期3429-3437,共9页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(5217110506)。

摘　　要：在连续弯曲航道航行时,船舶的碰撞风险急剧增加。首先,基于船舶碰撞风险理论构建船舶经过连续弯道时的碰撞风险评价指标体系;然后,采用粗糙集理论、序关系分析法与模糊综合评价相结合的方法对连续弯曲航道船舶碰撞风险进行综合评价;最后,计算指标体系中各项指标的组合权重,并将组合权重与模糊综合评价模型中各个指标所对应的隶属度相结合,得到连续弯曲航道船舶碰撞风险综合评价等级。以东博寮海峡与蓝塘海峡为例,对连续弯曲航道的船舶碰撞风险进行安全评估。结果显示东博寮海峡与蓝塘海峡的船舶碰撞风险处于较高风险等级,与实际风险相接近,这表明RS-G1-Fuzzy(Rough Set theory-G1 method-Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation)模型可准确评价连续弯曲航道船舶碰撞风险水平,有助于制定相关船舶碰撞风险减缓措施。When a ship sails through a curved channel continuously,the collision risk of the ship increases sharply due to the influence of various factors in the curved channel.To accurately assess the ship collision risk during continuous curved channel navigation,this study first builds the ship through a continuous curve of collision risk evaluation index system based on the ship collision risk theory,then uses the rough set theory,order relation analysis method,and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to combine the comprehensive evaluation of bend channel of ship collision risk.That is,firstly,the weight of the index system after expert scoring is calculated by order relation analysis to obtain the subjective weight of the index system.In the same way,the rough set theory uses objective data to calculate the index system to obtain the objective weight of the index system.Then the specific formula of combined weighting is used to combine the subjective weight and objective weight of each index system.Finally,the combined weight is combined with the membership degree corresponding to each index in the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model to calculate the comprehensive evaluation level of collision risk of ships in the continuous curved channel and define the collision risk level of the sea area based on the level.Taking East Lamma channel and Lantang channel as examples,the safety assessment of the collision risk of a continuous curved channel is carried out.The final example shows that the ship collision risk of East Lamma channel and Lantang channel is at a high-risk level,the validity of the model is proved,and the calculated results are close to the actual risk.The model can accurately evaluate the risk level of ship collision in a continuous curved channel and help to formulate relevant mitigation measures for ship collision risk.

关 键 词：安全工程 连续弯道 序关系分析法 粗糙集理论 模糊综合评价 安全评估 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]