基于PSR模型的石嘴山市生态安全评价与预测  

Evaluation and prediction of ecological security in Shizuishan City based on PSR model

作　　者：卢国志[1] 庞鑫燕 侯景伟 郝建[1] LU Guozhi;PANG Xinyan;HOU Jingwei;HAO Jian(College of Energy and Mining Engineering,Shandong University of Science and Technology,Qingdao 266590,Shandong,China;School of Civil and Environmental Engineering,Hunan University of Science and Engineering,Yongzhou 425199,Hunan,China)

机构地区：[1]山东科技大学能源与矿业工程学院,山东青岛266590 [2]湖南科技学院土木与环境工程学院,湖南永州425199

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2023年第10期3784-3792,共9页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41661026);宁夏自然科学基金项目(2022AAC03055)。

摘　　要：老工业城市面临资源过度开采带来的生态环境破坏问题,生态安全评价与预测有助于改善环境质量,提高生态系统稳定性。基于压力-状态-响应(Pressure-State-Response,PSR)模型构建生态安全评价指标体系,综合使用熵权法和层次分析法确定指标权重,运用综合指数模型对宁夏石嘴山市2010—2020年进行生态安全评价,并通过障碍度模型分析限制石嘴山市发展的制约因素,使用灰色预测GM(1,1)模型对石嘴山市未来几年生态安全状态进行预测。结果显示:石嘴山市生态安全由2010年的“恶劣”逐渐转变为2020年的“临界安全”。目前,制约石嘴山市生态发展的主要因素有工业废气排放总量、一般工业固体废物综合利用率、化肥施用量和能源消耗量。石嘴山市未来几年生态安全状态将继续呈现好转,其状态将由“临界安全”逐渐转换为“较安全”。Old industrial cities are facing the deterioration of the ecological environment brought about by the process of resource development,and ecological security evaluation and prediction can help improve their environmental quality and enhance the quality and stability of ecosystems.Taking Shizuishan City in Ningxia as an example,this paper constructs an ecological security evaluation index system based on the pressure-stateresponse model,comprehensively uses the entropy weight method and analytic hierarchy method to determine the index weight and uses the comprehensive index model to evaluate the ecological security of Shizuishan City from 2010 to 2020.Finally,the ecological security status of Shizuishan is divided into five levels:harsh,sensitive,critical security,relative security,and security.Based on the ecological security evaluation results,the obstacle degree model was combined to find out the constraints restricting the further development of Shizuishan City.Finally,the GM(1,1)prediction model was used to predict the ecological security status of Shizuishan City in the next few years.The results show that in the past ten years,the specific indicators of Shizuishan City are:the pressure first rises and then falls,the status index as a whole shows a slow increase trend,the response index shows an overall upward trend,and the specific upward fluctuation state is upward-falling-rising.The overall ecological security has shown a trend of improvement,gradually changing from harsh in 2010 to critical security in 2020.At present,the development of Shizuishan City is mainly manifested in the pressure level,the specific factors are:high fertilizer application amount,high total industrial exhaust emissions,the comprehensive utilization rate of general industrial solid waste,and special attention needs to be paid to energy consumption.From the forecast results,it can be seen that the ecological security of Shizuishan City will continue to improve in the next few years,and its state will gradually change from relative s

关 键 词：环境科学技术基础学科 石嘴山市 PSR模型 障碍度模型 灰色预测模型 

分 类 号：X826[环境科学与工程—环境工程]