发动机系统电磁脉冲易损性评估的灰色Bayes网络模型  

Grey Bayesian Network Model for Electromagnetic Pulse Vulnerability Assessment of Engine Systems

作　　者：李传鑫 赵昱[1] 孙铁刚[1] 孙晓颖[1] LI Chuanxin;ZHAO Yu;SUN Tiegang;SUN Xiaoying(College of Communication and Engineering,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学通信工程学院,长春130012

出　　处：《吉林大学学报（理学版）》2023年第6期1387-1394,共8页Journal of Jilin University:Science Edition

基　　金：装备预先研究项目(批准号:30105030302)。

摘　　要：首先,针对实验数据有限、信息不完全背景下导致的发动机系统电磁脉冲易损性评估不确定性问题,通过引入灰色系统理论中区间灰数表征发动机系统部件敏感度阈值和故障逻辑关系的不确定性,提出一种灰色Bayes网络模型,以提升Bayes网络对不确定信息的处理能力.其次,以宽带高功率微波为例,计算发动机系统区间灰数失效概率和传感器区间灰数后验失效概率,其中前者表示发动机系统整体在强电磁脉冲作用下的生存能力,后者反应了发动机系统失效条件下各传感器的易损顺序,评估结论可为车辆电磁防护设计提供参考.Firstly,aiming at the uncertainty problem of electromagnetic pulse vulnerability assessment of engine system under the background of limited test data and incomplete information,we proposed a grey Bayesian network model to improve the processing ability of Bayesian network for uncertain information by introducing the interval grey number in grey system theory to characterize the uncertainty of components sensitivity threshold and fault logic relationship of engine system.Secondly,taking wideband high power microwave as an example,the interval gray number failure probability of engine system and the interval gray number posterior failure probability of sensor were calculated.The former represented the survivability of the whole engine system under the action of strong electromagnetic pulse,and the latter reflected the vulnerable sequence of each sensor under the failure condition of the engine system.The evaluation conclusions could provide reference for electromagnetic protection design of vehicles.

关 键 词：发动机系统 BAYES网络 灰色系统理论 电磁脉冲易损性 

分 类 号：TP391[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]