定西市耕地利用变化及其驱动因素分析  

Analysis of Cultivated Land Use Change and Its Driving Factors in Dingxi City

作　　者：王金凯 谈存峰 Jinkai Wang;Cunfeng Tan(College of Finance and Economics,Gansu Agricultural University,Lanzhou 730070,Gansu,China)

机构地区：[1]甘肃农业大学财经学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《管理科学与研究（中英文版）》2023年第11期66-72,共7页Management Science and Research

摘　　要：耕地是保障国家粮食安全和经济发展的基石。文中利用GIS栅格分析及数据分析工具,运用耕地利用动态度、土地利用转移矩阵及因子分析方法,分析了定西市2000-2020年耕地利用变化情况及其驱动因素。结果表明:2000-2020年耕地面积下降了71074.71公顷,2000-2005年、2005-2010年、2010-2015年、2015-2020年耕地利用动态度分别为0.8%、0.67%、0.1%、0.41%,耕地总体呈流出趋势,主要流向林地、草地和建设用地。选取社会经济方面14个因子作为影响耕地变化的驱动因子,经过综合分析发现,影响定西市耕地利用变化的驱动因素主要是人口与经济发展水平,农业科技,工业发展水平,种植业发展水平,且对耕地利用变化的影响逐渐增强。Cultivated land is the cornerstone of national food security and economic development.This research employed advanced GIS raster analysis techniques and sophisticated data analysis tools to comprehensively investigate the dynamics of cultivated land use and the underlying factors influencing these changes in Dingxi City from 2000 to 2020.Methodologies including land use dynamic attitude,land use transfer matrix,and factor analysis were systematically utilized.Theoutcomes clearly indicate a substantial reduction of 71,074.71 hectares in the cultivated land area during this specified timeframe.The dynamic degree of cultivated land use from 2000 to 2005,2005 to 2010,2010 to 2015,and 2015 to 2020 was 0.8%,0.67%,0.1%,and 0.41%respectively,demonstrating an overall outflow trend.The major destinations for the outflow were forest land,grassland,and construction land.Fourteen factors from the social and economic aspects were identified as driving forces impacting the change in cultivated land.After comprehensive analysis,it is concluded that the main driving factors influencing the change in cultivated land use in Dingxi City are population and economic development level,agricultural science and technology,industrialdevelopment level,and planting development level.The impact of these factors on cultivated land use change is gradually increasing.

关 键 词：ARCGIS 耕地利用 驱动因素 定西市 

分 类 号：F32[经济管理—产业经济]