外资开放度、外贸开放度对入境旅游影响研究——基于省际空间面板数据  

Research on the Impact of Foreign Investment Openness and Foreign Trade Openness on Inbound Tourism——Based on the Panel Data of Provincial Space

作　　者：鲍富元[1,2] 周旗 杨玉英 Bao Fuyuan;Zhou Qi;Yang Yuying(School of Tourism and Hospitality Management,University of Sanya,Sanya 572000,China;The Silk Road Commercial Civilization Research Base of Hainan Province,Sanya 572000,China)

机构地区：[1]三亚学院旅游与酒店管理学院,海南三亚572000 [2]海南丝路商业文明研究基地,海南三亚572000

出　　处：《西北民族大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2023年第5期118-131,共14页Journal of Northwest Minzu University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：海南省社会科学基金项目"海南旅游业高质量发展的动能系统优化研究"(项目编号:JD(ZC)21-60);国家社会科学基金重大项目"文化和旅游融合视野下长江文化保护传承弘扬研究"(项目编号:21ZD04)。

摘　　要：高水平的开放发展格局是我国入境旅游持续发展的永久动力。为验证分析外资开放度、外贸开放度对入境旅游的影响,本文选取1995一2019年我国30个省份的空间面板数据,用Geoda软件研究我国入境旅游发展水平的省际空间相关性和空间集聚效应,并运用Mat-lab与Stata软件就外资开放度、外贸开放度对入境旅游的影响进行静态和动态的空间面板计量研究。研究发现:全局莫兰指数显示说明旅游开放度存在显著空间相关性;静态SDM模型中的外资开放度、外贸开放度对旅游开放度具有积极的正向促进作用,外资开放度和外贸开放度每提高1%,旅游开放度则分别增加0.1791%和0.3392%,且外贸开放度具有显著正向溢出效应;旅游开放度的空间效应在静态SDM模型和动态SDM模型中均显著,邻近地区旅游开放度每提高1%,本地区的旅游开放度则分别增加0.7970%和0.3175%;动态SDM模型中的旅游开放度滞后一期对旅游开放度本身具有显著正向作用;动态SDM模型存在均衡的长期效应和短期效应,且外资开放度、外贸开放度的短期间接效应显著。故此,建议在继续推动外资和外贸开放发展的同时,要充分利用外贸开放度的溢出效应和旅游开放度的空间效应,通过邻近省际之间的联动机制实现入境旅游协同发展。The high-level open development pattern is a permanent driving force for the sustain-able development of inbound tourism in China.In order to analyze the impact of foreign invest-ment openness and foreign trade openness on inbound tourism,we selected the spatial panel data of 30 provinces in China from the year 1995 to 2019,used Geoda software to study the inter-pro-vincial spatial correlation and spatial agglomeration effect of China's inbound tourism develop-ment level,and used Matlab and Stata software to study the impact of foreign investment open-ness and foreign trade openness on inbound tourism by the static and dynamic spatial panel e-conometric model.The findings are:the global Moran's index indicates a significant spatial cor-relation of the openness of tourism.The foreign investment openness and foreign trade openness in the static SDM model have a positive promoting effect on tourism openness;for every 1%in-crease in foreign investment openness and foreign trade openness,the openness of tourism in-creases by 0.1791%and 0.3392%respectively,and the openness of foreign trade has a signifi-cant positive spillover effect.The spatial effect of tourism openness is significant in both static and dynamic SDM models.For every 1%increase in tourism openness of neighboring areas,the openness of tourism in the local area increases by 0.7970%and 0.3175%respectively.The lag period of tourism openness in the dynamic SDM model has a significant positive effect on tourism openness itself.The dynamic SDM model has balanced long-term and short-term effects,and the short-term indirect effects of foreign investment openness and foreign trade openness are significant.Thus,it is recommended to promote the development of foreign invest-ment and foreign trade openness continuously,the spillover effect of foreign trade openness and the spatial effect of tourism openness can be fully utilized,and the collaborative development of inbound tourism can be achieved through the linkage mechanism among adjacent provinces.

关 键 词：外资开放度 外贸开放度 旅游开放度 空间集聚 空间杜宾模型 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]