基于林分生长模型的天山云杉碳汇潜力估测  

Estimation of carbon sequestration potential of Picea schrenkiana based on stand growth model

作　　者：张景路 张绘芳 高健 朱雅丽 地力夏提·包尔汉 ZHANG Jing-lu;ZHANG Hui-fang;GAO Jian;ZHU Ya-li;Dilixiati·Baoerhan(Modern Forestry Research Institute of Xinjiang Academy of Forestry,Urumqi 830000,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆林业科学院现代林业研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830000

出　　处：《江苏农业学报》2023年第6期1332-1340,共9页Jiangsu Journal of Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区公益性科研院所基本科研业务专项(KY2020019);新疆林业和草原局天然林保护管理补助资金项目[新林规字(2021)476号]。

摘　　要：为掌握研究区天山云杉(Picea schrenkiana)林分碳储量现状,估算其碳汇潜力,了解其碳汇动态变化过程,分别基于Gompertz、Logistic、Mitscherlich和Schumacher等4个常用生长曲线方程,采用林龄、平均树高、平均胸径和林分密度等指标构建林分蓄积量生长模型,选取最优模型,通过林分生物量-林分蓄积量回归模型和含碳系数建立林分碳储量生长模型,计算不同林分条件下天山云杉生长到180 a的碳密度年均增长量,预测研究区当前、30 a后和60 a后的林分碳储量及碳汇潜力。结果表明,对比不同生长曲线方程后选择Schumacher方程构建林分蓄积生长模型并转化为林分碳储量生长模型,模型精度89.082%,估计值的标准差13.006、总系统误差-0.293、平均系统误差-5.943、决定系数0.895。基于林分碳储量生长模型计算出天山云杉在相同林分密度条件下,随着林分立地条件的变化,林分碳密度0~180 a年平均增长量为0.020~0.641 t/(hm^(2)·a),研究区全域林分碳密度平均增长量为0.299 t/(hm^(2)·a),年平均增长量拐点位于30 a处。天山云杉林分碳汇潜力为1.245×10^(4) t碳;当前、未来30 a和未来60 a林分碳储量分别为3.439×10^(6) t碳、3.447×10^(6) t碳、3.450×10^(6) t碳,未来30 a、未来31~60 a的增长量分别为8×10^(3) t碳、3×10^(3) t碳,涨幅分别为0.233%和0.087%。本研究构建的林分碳储量生长模型具有较高的精度和稳定性,可用于研究区天山云杉林分碳汇潜力的估测;研究区天山云杉成熟林、过熟林占比较高,林分碳汇潜力低,需进行林龄结构优化,以促进天山云杉林的可持续发展。The aim of the study was to understand the carbon storage status of Picea schrenkiana stand in the study area and estimate its carbon sequestration potential,as well as understand the dynamic change process of carbon sequestration.Growth model for stand volume was constructed by using indexes such as stand age,average tree height,average tree diameter and stand density based on four conventional growth curve equations of Gompertz,Logistic,Mitscherlich and Schumacher.The carbon reserve growth model of stand was established by stand biomass volume-stand volume regression model and carbon content coefficient after selecting the optimal model.The annual average growth amount of carbon density of P.schrenkiana growed to 180 a under different stand conditions was calculated,and the present,30 years later and 60 years later stand carbon storage and carbon sequestration potential in the study area was predicted.The results showed that,after comparing different growth curve equations,Schumacher equation was selected to construct the stand volume growth model which was transformed into stand carbon storage growth model with the model accuracy of 89.082%.The standard deviation of the estimated value was 13.006,the overall systematic error was-0.293,the average systematic error was-5.943,and the determination coefficient was 0.895.Based on the growth model of stand carbon storage,it was calculated that,under the same condition of stand density,the average annual growth of stand carbon density of P.schrenkiana was 0.020-0.641 t/(hm^(2)·a)from 0 a to 180 a as the site condition of the stand changed.The average annual growth of stand carbon density in the study area was 0.299 t/(hm^(2)·a),and the inflection point of average growth was located at 30 a.The carbon sequestration potential of P.schrenkiana stand was 1.245×10^(4) t carbon,and the carbon storage values of P.schrenkiana stand at present,in the future 30 a and 60 a were 3.439×10^(6) t carbon,3.447×10^(6) t carbon,3.450×10^(6) t carbon respectively,the growth value

关 键 词：天山云杉 林分蓄积量生长模型 林分碳储量生长模型 碳储量 碳汇潜力 

分 类 号：S758.51[农业科学—森林经理学]