数字基础设施对出口贸易绩效的影响与作用机理——基于中介效应与门槛效应的检验  

How Does Digital Infrastructure Affect Export Trade Performance——Testing Based on Mediation Effect and Threshold Effect

作　　者：王琦 王琴梅[1] WANG Qi;WANG Qin-mei(International Business School,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi'an 710119,Shaanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学国际商学院,陕西西安710119

出　　处：《中国流通经济》2023年第11期76-88,共13页China Business and Market

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目“丝绸之路经济带‘核心区’物流业效率及其影响因素研究”(16XJL004);陕西省社会科学基金项目“数字生产力与生产关系视角下数字技术推动陕西农业高质量发展研究”(2022D035);陕西师范大学研究生领航人才基金项目“数字经济对丝绸之路经济带‘核心区’物流业高质量发展影响研究”(LHRCTS23013)。

摘　　要：发展数字贸易是建设贸易强国的重要内容。数字基础设施具有基础性和公共产品特性,可对我国数字贸易乃至出口贸易绩效产生重要影响。基于2002—2021年我国省级面板数据,利用主成分分析法、超效率SBM模型测度数字基础设施水平和出口贸易绩效,利用LSDV估计法分析数字基础设施对出口贸易绩效的影响与作用机理。根据特征事实,样本期内,我国数字基础设施水平的全国和地区均值基本呈逐年递增态势,仅2021年出现小幅下滑,且增长率及其变化趋势基本一致,地区均值呈阶梯状分布,从东部到中部再到西部地区依次递减;出口贸易绩效的全国和地区均值呈上下波动态势,地区均值从东部到中部再到西部地区呈阶梯状递减态势,省份均值在东部地区普遍较高,在西部地区普遍较低,且三大地区内部省份间差异大小不同,东部地区差异最大,西部地区差异其次,中部地区差异最小。基准回归结果表明,数字基础设施有助于出口贸易绩效提升,且该结论在经过一系列稳健性检验后依然成立;异质性分析结果表明,数字基础设施对出口贸易绩效的提升作用具有空间异质性和时间异质性,在中西部地区强于在东部地区,在2002—2011年不显著,在2012—2021年显著;中介效应检验结果表明,数字基础设施能够通过空间溢出效应、产业融合效应、成本节约效应促进出口贸易绩效提升;门槛效应检验结果表明,数字基础设施对出口贸易绩效的提升作用具有非线性门槛特征,随着产业结构升级,其提升作用增强。因此,应加快推进数字基础设施建设,夯实数字贸易基础;缩小数字基础设施地区差异,释放数字贸易红利;拓展大数据融合应用场景,驱动数字贸易高效发展。Developing digital trade is the important content in fostering a trader of quality.Digital infrastructure has both the fundamental and public goods characteristics,which can has important impact on China's digital trade and even the export trade performance.Based on China's inter provincial panel data from 2002 to 2021,principal component analysis and super efficiency SBM models are used to measure the performance levels of digital infrastructure and export trade;and the LSDV method of estimation is used to analyze the impact and mechanism of digital infrastructure on export trade performance.It is found that,according to feature facts,the average level of China's and regional digital infrastructure increased year by year during the observation period excepting the year 2021 with small decrease,and the growth rate and trend are almost the same;the regional average level shows a stepwise decreasing trend in the three major regions of the East,Central and West regions accordingly.The average level of China's and regional export trade performance keep fluctuating;the regional average level shows a stepwise decreasing trend in the three major regions of the east,central and west regions accordingly;the provincial average level of that in the east regions is higher and that in the west regions is lower;and the provincial differences within the three regions is small,with highest differences in the east regions,and then the west and central regions accordingly.Benchmark regression results show that digital infrastructure can help improve export trade performance,and this conclusion is still significant after a series of robustness tests.Heterogeneity analysis results show that:the promoting effect of digital infrastructure on export trade performance is characterized by temporal and spatial heterogeneity;the effect in the west regions is stronger than that in the east regions;and it is not obvious from 2002 to 2011,and obvious from 2012 to 2021.Intermediary effect test results show that digital infrastructure can indir

关 键 词：数字基础设施 出口贸易绩效 空间溢出效应 产业融合效应 成本节约效应 

分 类 号：F752.8[经济管理—国际贸易]