人民币国际化进程中的货币锚效应——基于186个经济体的比较研究  

Currency Anchor Effect in the Process of RMB Internationalization——A Comparative Study based on 186 Economies

作　　者：李爽[1] 姜岩[1] LI Shuang;JIANG Yan(Research Institute of the Belt&Road,Dalian Jiaotong University,Dalian 116028,Liaoning,China)

机构地区：[1]大连交通大学“一带一路”研究院,辽宁大连116028

出　　处：《中国流通经济》2023年第11期105-114,共10页China Business and Market

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目“‘一带一路’背景下中俄跨境电商与跨境物流协同发展研究”(21YJAGJW002);辽宁省社会科学规划基金重大委托项目“‘双循环’发展格局下辽宁海陆大通道高质量建设路径及对策研究”(L22ZD015);中央支持地方高校改革发展资金人文社科融合发展专项研究课题“‘一带一路’背景下中国高铁品牌国际化发展战略研究”(032013514)。

摘　　要：在国际化进程中,人民币成为重要的货币锚有利于提升其在世界货币体系中的国际地位,并促进全球区域经济合作。选取全球不同地理区域内的186个经济体,采用隐含货币篮子回归方法,比较“8·11”汇改前后人民币在国际化进程中货币锚效应的异质性,并采用广义矩估计方法和动态面板数据模型实证检验人民币货币锚效应的影响因素。研究表明:人民币已成为较多经济体的隐性货币锚,其发挥作用的主要区域为东南亚、大洋洲、西亚、西非等;人民币的全球货币影响力与英镑、日元接近,但与美元和欧元仍有差距;人民币货币锚效应的促进因素包括样本经济体对中国的贸易依存度、样本经济体与中国的利率差异以及人民币汇率制度改革,人民币货币锚效应的抑制因素包括样本经济体的相对经济实力、通胀水平和国际原油价格等;人民币货币锚效应在“一带一路”共建国家和非“一带一路”共建国家之间存在异质性,对于非“一带一路”共建国家,人民币货币锚效应的滞后性更显著。因此,不断完善人民币汇率形成机制,增加汇率调控弹性,并根据不同国际区域特征促进全方位多层次区域合作,以及依托“一带一路”倡议,积极推进和完善人民币国际化相关政策措施,能够优化人民币国际化全球战略布局。In the process of RMB internationalization,becoming an important monetary anchor is conducive to enhancing the international status of RMB in the world monetary system and promoting global regional economic cooperation.In this paper,186 economies in different geographical regions of the world are selected,and the implicit currency basket regression method proposed by Frankel&Wei is used to compare the heterogeneity of currency anchor effect of RMB in the process of internationalization before&after the"8.11"exchange rate reform,and the influencing factors of the currency anchor effect of RMB are empirically tested by using Generalized Method of Moments and Dynamic Panel Data Model.It is found that:RMB has become the recessive currency anchor of many economies,and the main regions where it plays a role are South Asia,Oceania,West Asia,West Africa,and so on;the global currency influence of the RMB is close to that of the British pound&the Japanese yen,but there is still a gap with the US dollar&the euro;the promoting factors of RMB currency anchor effect include the sample country's trade dependence on China,the interest rate difference between the sample country&China,and the reform of RMB exchange rate system;and the inhibiting factors of RMB currency anchor effect include the relative economic strength,inflation level and international crude oil price of the sample country.The currency anchor effect of RMB is heterogeneous between the economies along the Belt&Road and the economies not along the Belt&Road;and for the economies not along the Belt&Road,the lag of the currency anchor effect of RMB is more significant.Therefore,continuously improving the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism,increasing the flexibility of exchange rate regulation,promoting all-round&multi-level regional cooperation according to different international&regional characteristics,and actively promoting&improving the relevant policies&measures for RMB internationalization based on the BRI can optimize the global strategic layout of RMB in

关 键 词：人民币国际化 一带一路 经济体 货币锚 汇率制度 

分 类 号：F822.2[经济管理—财政学]