气候经济复杂系统建模中的气候损失与适应研究进展  

Advances in climate damage and adaptation research in modelling complex climate-economy system

作　　者：廖华[1,2] 王方志 滕美萱 LIAO Hua;WANG Fangzhi;TENG Meixuan(School of Management and Economics,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China;Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京100081 [2]北京理工大学能源与环境政策研究中心,北京100081

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2023年第8期2179-2194,共16页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71925008,72293605)。

摘　　要：气候损失与适应是气候复杂经济系统模型的关键模块,并影响到气候决策力度.本文梳理了该领域的研究进展.气候损失研究不仅关注温升对经济产出水平的总体影响,也关注温升通过对实物资本、劳动力供给、技术进步、自然资本等冲击而造成的损失.目前文献对不同温升幅度下损失函数的改进有了方向性判断,但损失函数具体设置仍存在较大分歧.现有的气候适应模型主要考虑适应性投资行为和市场机制两种途径.在模型中内生这两类适应策略既需考虑相关限制因素以避免高估气候适应能力,也需要关注适应策略的区域异质性.未来研究还需考虑社会维度损失和除温升外其他气候风险特征及其传导机制,完善损失函数构建和校准,并辅以概率工具等刻画损失和适应的不确定性,以期为气候决策提供依据.Climate damage and adaptation are key modules in the integrated assessment modelling on climate-economy system,both of which will directly affect the stringency of climate policy.This paper explores the recent academic advancement in these two aspects.As for climate damage,an emerging strand of literature not only focuses on the overall impact of rising temperature on economic production,but also sheds more spotlights on how rising temperature can cause economic losses through shocks to capital stock,labor supply,technical change and natural capital.Although recent studies illuminate directions for improving damage function under varying degrees of temperature rise,enormous disputes still hang over the concrete settings of the damage function.Existing climate-adaptation models commonly resort to either adaptive investment or market mechanisms.However,additional examinations should be warranted of related constraints on adaptation to avoid overestimating the effects of climate adaptation,as well as the regional heterogeneity in adaptation strategies.Future research should take into account social damages caused by climate change,other climate risk characteristics in addition to rising temperature,and how they channel corresponding effects.Furthermore,more empirical studies are needed to help refine the constructions and calibrations of the damage function,and probability tools are called for to investigate the uncertainties of climate damage and adaptation,in a shared effort to provide references for guiding climate policy practices.

关 键 词：气候经济系统 气候损失 气候适应 综合评估模型 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济] N949[自然科学总论—系统科学] P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]