混合不确定环境下双层多目标区域水资源优化配置研究  

Bi-level multi-objective regional water resources optimal allocation under hybrid uncertainty

作　　者：涂燕 石宏伟 秦晋栋[2,3] 周晓阳 TU Yan;SHI Hongwei;QIN Jindong;ZHOU Xiaoyang(School of Safety Science and Emergency Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,China;School of Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,China;Research Center for Data Science and Intelligent Decision Making,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,China;School of Management,Xi’an Jiaotong University,Xi’an 710049,China;Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学安全科学与应急管理学院,武汉430070 [2]武汉理工大学管理学院,武汉430070 [3]武汉理工大学数据科学与智能决策研究中心,武汉430070 [4]西安交通大学管理学院,西安710049 [5]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京100190

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2023年第8期2428-2446,共19页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71801177,72071151,72271194);教育部人文社科基金(18YJC630163)。

摘　　要：受气候变化、供需失衡、环境污染等因素影响,我国水资源正面临严峻的短缺危机.科学的区域水资源配置策略是应对水资源短缺危机的重要手段,对实现社会、经济和环境福祉至关重要.区域水资源配置系统涉及具有异质目标的多层级决策主体,因此需要综合考虑其中的决策冲突关系,以实现互利共赢;同时,系统受到社会、经济、环境等多方面因素影响,导致区域水资源配置决策存在复杂的混合不确定性.因此,构建混合不确定环境下区域水资源优化配置双层多目标规划模型,首先,剖析区域水资源配置系统中的混合不确定环境,将可用水总量考虑为离散模糊随机变量,用水部门水需求考虑为连续随机模糊变量;其次,深入挖掘系统多层级多主体特征,提出一种以行政配水机制为主、水市场配水机制为辅的分层混合配水机制;再次,以追求社会效益和环保的区域水资源管理部门为领导者,以追求自身利益的各用水部门为从属者,从而实现多层级多主体多目标的协同优化.针对该复杂的双层多目标规划模型,采用基于满意度的双层交互方法进行求解,并以湖北省武汉市为例开展研究,结果表明,与单层多目标规划模型等传统模型相比,提出的模型在确保配水方案合理的同时维护了多层级主体之间的公平性;与单纯的行政配水机制相比,分层混合配水机制使工业、农业、生活用水部门的经济效益分别增长了10.44%、3.57%、0.31%,提高了用水效率,促进了区域水资源高效配置.Influenced by factors such as climate change,supply-demand disequilibrium and environmental pollution,water resources in China is facing a severe shortage crisis.A scientific regional water allocation strategy is an important means to deal with the water shortage crisis,which is crucial for prosperity of society,economy and environment.Since the regional water resources allocation system involves multi-level decision-making subjects with heterogeneous objectives,it is necessary to comprehensively consider the decision-making conflicts among them to realize mutual benefit and win-win progress.At the same time,the system is affected by social,economic,environmental factors,resulting in complex hybrid uncertainty in the decisionmaking of regional water resources allocation.Therefore,a bi-level multi-objective programming model for regional water resources optimal allocation is constructed.Firstly,after dissecting the hybrid uncertain environment in regional water resources allocation system,the total water availability is considered as a discrete fuzzy random variable,and the water demands of water sectors are considered as continuous random fuzzy variables;then,deliberating the multi-level and multi-subject characteristics of regional water resources allocation,a hierarchical hybrid water allocation mechanism is put forward,which is dominated by administrative water allocation mechanism and supplemented by water market allocation mechanism;furthermore,the regional water resources management department pursuing social benefits and environmental protection is considered as the leader and the water sectors pursuing their own interests are considered as the followers,so as to realize multi-level,multi-subject and multi-objective collaborative optimization.The bi-level interactive method based on satisfactory degree is applied to solve the complex bi-level multi-objective programming model,and a case study on Wuhan in Hubei Province is carried out.The results indicate that,compared with traditional models such as single

关 键 词：区域水资源优化配置 混合不确定 双层多目标规划 双层交互方法 水市场 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济] O221[理学—运筹学与控制论]