基于改进的双累积曲线法量化气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响  

Quantify the impacts of climate variability and anthropogenic activities on runoff:With an improved double mass curve method

作　　者：周俊菊 薛东香 杨岚婷 刘春芳 魏伟 杨雪梅 赵亚茹 ZHOU Junju;XUE Dongxiang;YANG Lanting;LIU Chunfang;WEI Wei;YANG Xuemei;ZHAO Yaru(College of Geography and Environmental Science,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou 730070,China;College of Earth and Environment Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;Gansu Engineering Research Center of Land Utilization and Comprehension Consolidation,Lanzhou 730070,China;Key Laboratory of Resource Environment and Sustainable Development of Oasis,Gansu Province,Lanzhou 730070,China;College of Social Development and Public Administration,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou 730070,China;Tourism School,Lanzhou University of Arts and Science,Lanzhou 730000,China;Institute of Geology and Geophysics,CAS,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]College of Geography and Environmental Science,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou 730070,China [2]College of Earth and Environment Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China [3]Gansu Engineering Research Center of Land Utilization and Comprehension Consolidation,Lanzhou 730070,China [4]Key Laboratory of Resource Environment and Sustainable Development of Oasis,Gansu Province,Lanzhou 730070,China [5]College of Social Development and Public Administration,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou 730070,China [6]Tourism School,Lanzhou University of Arts and Science,Lanzhou 730000,China [7]Institute of Geology and Geophysics,CAS,Beijing 100029,China

出　　处：《Journal of Geographical Sciences》2023年第11期2237-2256,共20页地理学报（英文版）

基　　金：National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42361005,No.41861034,No.41661040,No.32060373。

摘　　要：Quantitative assessments of the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on runoff help us to better understand the mechanisms of hydrological processes.This study analyzed the dynamics of mountainous runoff in the upper reaches of the Shiyang River Basin(USRB)and its sub-catchments,and quantified the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff using the improved double mass curve(IDMC)method,which comprehensively considers the effects of precipitation and evapotranspiration on runoff,instead of only considering precipitation as before.The results indicated that the annual runoff depth in the USRB showed a slightly increased trend from 1961 to 2018,and sub-catchments were increased in the west and decreased in the east.The seasonal distribution pattern of runoff depth in the USRB and its eight sub-catchments all showed the largest in summer,followed by autumn and spring,and the smallest in winter with an increasing trend.Quantitative assessment results using the IDMC method showed that the runoff change in the USRB is more significantly affected by climate change,however,considerable differences are evident in sub-catchments.This study further developed and improved the method of runoff attribution analysis conducted at watershed scale,and these results will contribute to the ecological protection and sustainable utilization of water resources in the USRB and similar regions.

关 键 词：RUNOFF climate change land use/cover change(LUCC) improved double mass curve(IDMC) Qilian Mountains 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P333[天文地球—水文科学]