中国粮食贸易中虚拟耕地资源流动的区域差异及分布动态演进  

Regional difference and distribution dynamic evolution of virtual cultivated land resources flow in China's grain trade

作　　者：曹冲 CAO Chong(School of Economics and Management,West Anhui University,Lu'an 237012,China;Anhui Engineering Research Center for Eco-agriculture of Traditional Chinese Medicine,Lu'an 237012,China)

机构地区：[1]皖西学院经济与管理学院,六安237012 [2]数据智能与大别山乡村振兴安徽省哲学社会科学重点实验室,六安237012

出　　处：《科技导报》2023年第20期32-43,共12页Science & Technology Review

基　　金：皖西学院高层次人才科研启动资金项目(WGKQ2021076);安徽省教育厅科学研究项目(2022AH051664);六安市社会科学创新发展研究课题(2022LSK40)。

摘　　要：以2002—2020年中国30省份的粮食相关数据为研究样本,在对粮食贸易中虚拟耕地资源流量进行估算的基础上,利用Dagum基尼系数及其分解方法、Kernel密度估计方法和Markov链分析方法,对中国粮食贸易中虚拟耕地资源流动的区域差异及分布动态演进趋势进行实证考察。研究表明:(1)中国粮食贸易中虚拟耕地资源净进口量整体呈上升态势,但区域间发展不平衡,呈现“东部>西部>中部”的特征;(2)区域间差异是中国粮食贸易中虚拟耕地资源净进口量地区差异的主要来源,贡献份额在60%~70%之间,全国及三大区域总体差异较大,呈现“先升后降”趋势;(3)全国及三大区域粮食贸易中虚拟耕地资源净进口量的中心发展趋势逐渐右移,除了中部地区外,“右拖尾”现象显著,且极化现象得以缓解;(4)在不考虑空间条件时,虚拟耕地资源净进口量持续性较强,各省份之间不会发生状态转移,但是向高水平趋势转移明显。因此,要清晰认识粮食贸易中虚拟耕地资源净进口量的空间非均衡性,应动态调整粮食进出口贸易政策,同时也要注意避免粮食贸易中虚拟耕地资源过度进口对国内造成的消极影响。Taking the grain-related data of 30 provinces in China from 2002 to 2020 as the research sample,based on the estimation of the flow of virtual cultivated land resources in grain trade,the Dagum Gini coefficient and its decomposition method,Kernel density estimation method and Markov chain analysis method were used to empirically investigate the regional differences and distribution dynamic evolution trend of virtual cultivated land resource flow in China's grain trade.The results show that:(1)the net import of virtual arable land resources in China's grain trade is on the rise,but the development is unbalanced between regions,showing the characteristics of"eastern>western>central";(2)Inter-regional differences are the main source of regional differences in the net import of virtual arable land resources in China's grain trade,with a contribution share between 60%~70%,and the overall differences between the whole country and the three major regions are large,showing a trend of"rising first and then falling";(3)The center development trend of net imports of virtual arable land resources in grain trade in the whole country and the three major regions gradually shifted to the right,except for the central region,the phenomenon of right tailing is significant,and the polarization phenomenon is alleviated;(4)When the spatial conditions are not considered,the net import of virtual cultivated land resources is more sustainable,and there will be no state transfer between provinces,but the trend to a high level is obvious.Therefore,it is necessary to clearly understand the spatial imbalance of the net import of virtual cultivated land resources in grain trade,and dynamically adjust the grain import and export trade policy,and at the same time pay attention to avoiding the negative impact of excessive import of virtual cultivated land resources in grain trade on the domestic market.

关 键 词：粮食贸易 虚拟耕地资源 区域差异 

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