“规模效应”还是“拥挤效应”?--奶牛养殖产业集聚对环境效率的非线性影响研究  

“Scale Effect”or“Crowding Effect”?Study on the Nonlinear Influence of Dairy Farming Industry Agglomeration on Environmental Efficiency

作　　者：许佳彬 李翠霞[1] XU Jiabin;LI Cuixia

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学经济管理学院,哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《农业技术经济》2023年第10期22-43,共22页Journal of Agrotechnical Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“婴幼儿奶粉安全信任指数对产品竞争力的影响--指标测度、关联模型构建及市场模拟”(编号:71673042);中宣部文化名家暨“四个一批”人才自选项目“中国乳制品竞争力比较研究”(编号:201801)。

摘　　要：在资源环境约束日益趋紧的背景下,探究奶牛养殖产业集聚对环境效率的非线性影响,对于实现奶牛养殖业绿色转型、推动畜牧业高质量发展具有重要意义。本文基于2004—2019年中国28个省份奶牛养殖面板数据,利用随机效应的面板Tobit模型检验产业集聚对环境效率的非线性影响,采用中介效应模型检验产业集聚影响环境效率的传导机制。结果表明:奶牛养殖产业集聚与环境效率之间存在显著的倒“U”型关系,即“规模效应”先发挥作用,在跨越产业集聚拐点以后,“拥挤效应”将起到抑制作用;经过内生性处理以后,计算所得的奶牛养殖产业集聚拐点值为3.10,即拐点左侧产业集聚的“规模效应”显著提升环境效率,拐点右侧产业集聚的“拥挤效应”将会降低环境效率,稳健性检验证实倒“U”型关系依然成立;区域异质性分析发现,养殖优势区域拐点值为4.19,明显高于普通区域的1.40,目前仅有少部分区域跨越拐点值,绝大部分区域依旧需要发挥产业集聚的“规模效应”以提升环境效率;中介效应检验显示,政府环境支出的无效扩张、基础设施投入的不足以及服务业发展水平偏低会显著抑制奶牛养殖产业集聚对环境效率的提升作用。因此,本文提出鼓励推进奶牛养殖集聚发展、优化奶牛养殖空间布局、时刻关注奶牛养殖集聚规模、构建多元化主体协同治污机制等政策建议。XU Jiabin;LI Cuixia;Under the background of increasingly tight resource and environmental constraints,exploring the nonlinear influence of dairy farming industry agglomeration on environmental efficiency is of great significance to realize the green transformation of dairy farming and promote the high-quality development of animal husbandry.Based on the panel data of dairy farming in 28 provinces(cities and districts)of China from 2004 to 2019,this paper uses a panel Tobit model of random effect to test the nonlinear influence of industrial agglomeration on environmental efficiency,and uses an intermediary effect model to test the transmission mechanism of industrial agglomeration on environmental efficiency.The results show that there is a significant inverted“U”relationship between dairy farming industrial agglomeration and environmental efficiency,that is,the“scale effect”plays a role first,and“crowding effect”will take over after crossing the inflection point of industrial agglomeration.After endogenous treatment,the calculated inflection point of dairy farming industry agglomeration is 3.10,that is,the“scale effect”of industrial agglomeration on the left side of the inflection point significantly improves environmental efficiency,and the“crowding effect”of industrial agglomeration on the right side of the inflection point will reduce environmental efficiency.The robustness test confirms that the inverted“U”relationship is still valid.The analysis of regional heterogeneity shows that the inflection point value of advantageous regions is 4.19,which is significantly higher than 1.40 of ordinary regions.At present,only a few regions cross the inflection point value,and most regions still need to give play to the“scale effect”of industrial agglomeration to improve environmental efficiency.The intermediary effect test shows that ineffective expansion of government environmental expenditure,lack of infrastructure investment and low development of service industry will significantly inhib

关 键 词：奶牛养殖 产业集聚 环境效率 规模效应 拥挤效应 绿色转型 

分 类 号：X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F326.3[经济管理—产业经济]