Predictability and Risk of Extreme Winter PM_(2.5)Concentration in Beijing  

作　　者：Jingpeng LIU Adam A.SCAIFE Nick DUNSTONE Hong-Li REN Doug SMITH Steven CHARDIMAN Bo WU 

机构地区：[1]China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies,National Climate Centre,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China [2]Met Office Hadley Centre,Exeter EX13PB,United Kingdom [3]College of Engineering,Mathematics,and Physical Sciences,University of Exeter,Exeter EX44QG,United Kingdom [4]State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather and Institute of Tibetan Plateau Meteorology,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China [5]State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG),Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China

出　　处：《Journal of Meteorological Research》2023年第5期632-642,共11页气象学报（英文版）

基　　金：Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42005041 and U2242206);National Key Research and Development Program of China (2018YFA0606302 and 2018YFC1506001);National Basic Research Program of China (2015CB453203);UK–China Research&Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fund。

摘　　要：Air pollution remains a serious environmental and social problem in many big cities in the world.How to predict and estimate the risk of extreme air pollution is unsettled yet.This study tries to provide a solution to this challenge by examining the winter PM_(2.5)concentration in Beijing based on the UNprecedented Simulation of Extremes with ENsembles(UNSEEN)method.The PM_(2.5)concentration observations in Beijing,Japanese 55-yr reanalysis data,and the Met Office near term climate prediction system(DePreSys3a)large ensemble simulations are used,and 10,000proxy series are generated with the model fidelity test.It is found that in Beijing,the main meteorological driver of PM_(2.5)concentration is monthly 850-hPa meridional wind(V850).Although the skill in prediction of V850 is low on seasonal and longer timescales,based on the UNSEEN,we use large ensemble of initialized climate simulations of V850 to estimate the current chance and risk of unprecedented PM_(2.5)concentration in Beijing.We unravel that there is a 3%(2.1%–3.9%)chance of unprecedented low monthly V850 corresponding to high PM_(2.5)in each winter,within the 95%range,calculated by bootstrap resampling of the data.Moreover,we use the relationship between air quality and winds to remove the meridional wind influence from the observed record,and find that anthropogenic intervention appears to have reduced the risk of extreme PM_(2.5)in Beijing in recent years.

关 键 词：UNprecedented Simulation of Extremes with ENsembles(UNSEEN) climate risk PM_(2.5) BEIJING 

分 类 号：X513[环境科学与工程—环境工程]