中国海上突发环境事件预测预警系统研究及应用  

Research and application of marine environmental emergencies prediction and early warning system in China

作　　者：杨永俊[1] 赵骞[1] 张建丽[1] 席彦彬 YANG Yongjun;ZHAO Qian;ZHANG Jianli;XI Yanbin(National Marine Environmental Monitoring Center,Dalian Liaoning 116023)

机构地区：[1]国家海洋环境监测中心,辽宁大连116023

出　　处：《环境污染与防治》2023年第11期1597-1602,共6页Environmental Pollution & Control

基　　金：生态环境部业务项目

摘　　要：为提高海上突发环境事件预测预警工作效率,解决相关技术零散、不成体系的问题,梳理归纳了中国海上突发环境事件预测预警业务工作流程,将海洋水动力环境动态模拟预测、污染物迁移转化模拟预测和溯源、环境风险评价、预测预警报告编报、预测预警产品动态化展示和个性化订制等多项关键技术进行流程化、系统化集成整合,设计研发了中国海上突发环境事件预测预警系统,并应用于青岛某油轮溢油事故的预测预警。结果表明,预测预警工作历时约2 h,实测油污分布和预测结果较为吻合,预测预警系统具有较高的准确性和可靠性,可极大缩短预警响应时间,为海上突发环境事件的应急响应提供有力支撑。In order to improve the efficiency of prediction and early warning of marine environmental emergencies,and solve the problems of scattered and unsystematic related technologies,this study summarized and sorted out the business process of prediction and early warning of marine environmental emergencies in China.Many key technologies such as marine dynamic simulation prediction of hydrodynamic environment,simulation prediction and traceability of pollutant migration and transformation,environmental risk assessment,compilation and reporting of prediction and early warning reports,dynamic display and personalized customization of prediction and early warning products were integrated into a process-oriented and system-oriented manner,and then China’s marine environmental emergency prediction and early warning system was designed and developed.The established prediction and early warning system had been applied to predict and early warning for oil spill accident of an oil tanker in the coastal waters of Qingdao.The results showed that the average duration of prediction and early warning work was about 2 hours,and the measured oil pollution distribution was relatively consistent with prediction result.The prediction and early warning system had high accuracy and reliability,which could greatly shorten the warning time and provide strong support for emergency response to sudden environmental events at sea.

关 键 词：突发环境事件 预测预警 海上应急 环境风险 

分 类 号：X507[环境科学与工程—环境工程]