国家现代农业示范区设立对区域大气污染的影响效应--基于中国2362个区县的实证研究  

Effect of the Establishment of National Modern Agriculture Demonstration Zones on Regional Air Pollution--Based on an Empirical Study of 2362 Districts and Counties in China

作　　者：曹昱亮 邢硕 师荣光 Cao Yuliang;Xing Shuo;Shi Rongguang(School of Management,Tianjin University of Technology;Agro-Environmental Protection Institute,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs)

机构地区：[1]天津理工大学管理学院 [2]农业农村部环境保护科研监测所 [3]国家乡村环境治理科技创新联盟

出　　处：《调研世界》2023年第11期68-80,共13页The World of Survey and Research

基　　金：中国农业科学院科技创新工程(2023-CAAS-CXGC-SRG)的资助。

摘　　要：本文基于2006—2020年我国31个省(区、市)2362个区县的平衡面板数据,运用双重差分模型检验国家现代农业示范区设立对区域大气污染的影响,探讨三批国家现代农业示范区的政策实施效果。研究发现,国家现代农业示范区设立对区域大气污染具有较为显著的抑制作用,该结果通过了一系列的稳健性检验;机制分析表明,国家现代农业示范区的设立通过提高产业结构高级化缓解大气污染程度;调节效应分析表明,农业经济发展可以正向调节国家现代农业示范区设立对大气污染程度的抑制作用;异质性结果表明,国家现代农业示范区设立在东北部、东部地区以及农业发展规模较大地区会对区域大气污染有显著抑制作用,在中西部地区和农业发展规模较小地区抑制作用并不明显。本研究对于国家现代农业示范区设立的有序推进及区县地区空气质量改善的路径探索提供了有益启示。Based on the balanced panel data of 2362 districts and counties in 31 provinces of China from 2006 to 2020,this paper tests the effect of the establishment of national modern agriculture demonstration zones on regional air pollution by using the difference-in-differences model,and discusses the effect of the policy implementation of three batches of national modern agriculture demonstration zones.It is found that the establishment of national modern agriculture demonstration zone has a significant inhibitory effect on regional air pollution,and the results have passed a series of robustness tests.The mechanism analysis shows that the establishment of demonstration zones alleviates air pollution by improving the industrial structure.The moderating effect analysis shows that the development of agricultural economy can positively moderate the inhibition effect of the establishment of national modern agricultural demonstration zones on the degree of air pollution.The heterogeneity results show that the establishment of national modern agriculture demonstration zones in the northeastern and eastern regions and areas with large agricultural development scale has a significant inhibitory effect on regional air pollution,but has insignificant inhibitory effect in the central and western regions and areas with small agricultural development scale.The research provides useful enlightenment for the orderly promotion of the establishment of national modern agriculture demonstration zones and the exploration of ways to improve the air quality of districts and counties.

关 键 词：国家现代农业示范区 大气污染 双重差分 调节效应 

分 类 号：C811[社会学—统计学]