高房价让青年不愿结婚了吗  

Does the High Housing Price Discourage Chinese Youth from Getting Married?

作　　者：刘润秋[1] 唐宇娣 马一玲 Liu Runqiu;Tang Yudi;Ma Yiling

机构地区：[1]四川大学公共管理学院

出　　处：《财经科学》2023年第10期137-148,共12页Finance & Economics

基　　金：成都市哲学社会科学专项重大项目“完善住房保障体系提升公园城市宜居品质的对策研究”(2022A07)的资助。

摘　　要：本文基于近年来中国“高房价”和“低结婚率”的特征事实,聚焦青年人群,利用全国人口普查结果和民政部婚姻登记数据,推算青年人群结婚率,匹配地区房价以及其他相关统计数据,构建了2005—2019年省级面板数据,基于面板回归模型,探究了房价对青年结婚率的影响。研究结果表明:房价上涨对青年人群结婚率有显著负向影响,且经过一系列稳健性检验以及工具变量处理内生性问题后,研究结论仍然成立。从地区异质性来看,东部、中部地区房价上涨对青年人群结婚率有显著负向影响,西部则无明显影响。从年龄异质性来看,房价上涨对各个年龄段青年人群结婚率影响均显著为负,但随着年龄增长负向影响作用有减弱趋势。为解决高房价背景下青年“购房难”“住房难”而“结婚难”的问题,本文提出要促进房地产市场平稳健康发展,从强化青年刚需购房支持、加大青年住房保障力度、推动租售同权等方面寻找政策着力点。In recent years in China,housing prices have been rising,while the marriage rate has been declining.We wonder if higher housing prices lead to lower marriage rates.This paper empirically answers this question by exploring the impact of high housing prices on the marriage rate of young people.We measured the marriage rate of the youth population and constructed provincial panels of data from 2005-2019 for regression analysis.Our study finds that rising house prices have a significant negative impact on the marriage rate of the youth population,and the conclusion is still valid after a series of robustness tests as well as addressing the endogeneity issue by exploiting Instrumental Variables Approach.Later,this paper also considers the heterogeneity effect of rising housing price on the marriage rate of youth in different regions and ages,and finds that the negative effect mainly exists in eastern and central Chian,while no significant effects in the western;and rising housing prices have a negative impact on the marriage rate of young people of all ages,but it has a weakening trend with the increase of age.The research conclusion of this paper has important guiding role and practical significance for the marriage problem of young people under the pressure of high housing prices,and we suggest that it is necessary to ensure the steady and healthy development of the real estate market,strengthen rigid housing purchase support,improve housing guarantee level,promote "equal rights for rent and sale".

关 键 词：房价上涨 青年人群 结婚率 

分 类 号：F063.4[经济管理—政治经济学]