基于大数据处理的漳州市果树寒害风险区划  

Risk Zoning of Cold and Freezing Injury of Fruit Trees in Zhangzhou City Based on Big Data Processing

作　　者：黄奕丹 陈慧 李丽容 郑小琴 陈锦鹏 程晶晶 林辉 HUANG Yi-dan;CHEN Hui;LI Li-rong;ZHENG Xiao-qin;CHEN Jin-peng;CHENG Jing-jing;LIN Hui(Zhangzhou Meteorological Bureau of Fujian,Zhangzhou 363000,China;Fujian Institute of Meteorological Science,Fuzhou 350001,China)

机构地区：[1]福建省漳州市气象局,福建漳州363000 [2]福建省气象科学研究所,福建福州350001

出　　处：《江西农业学报》2023年第9期121-127,共7页Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi

基　　金：福建省自然科学基金资助项目(2021J011257);厦门市气象局科技专项(3502Z20214ZD4014);中国气象局/广东省区域数值天气预报重点实验室开放基金课题(J202005)。

摘　　要：利用漳州市1981—2018年的地面气象观测资料和DEM高程数据,结合前人研究的香蕉、莲雾寒害等级指标,采用高斯核函数的核密度估计、相关性分析、回归分析和反距离加权平均等大数据处理方法,构建了以寒害过程为基础的寒害综合气候灾害因子,编制了漳州地区香蕉、莲雾寒害等级风险概率地理分布图和寒害气候风险区划图。结果显示:香蕉和莲雾在漳州市的综合气候风险指数值大体呈现由西北向东南降低的趋势,西北内陆地区的综合气候风险指数值普遍较高,东南沿海地区的风险指数值普遍较低。本研究在量化寒害风险信息的同时,也为农业生产部门制定适宜的防灾减灾政策及措施提供了科学依据。Based on the ground meteorological observation data and DEM elevation data of Zhangzhou City from 1981 to 2018,combined with the cold and freezing injury grade indexes of banana and wax apple studied by predecessors,big data processing methods such as Kernel density estimation of Gaussian kernel function,correlation analysis,regression analysis and Inverse distance weighting average,a comprehensive climate disaster factor was constructed based on the process of cold damage.The geographical distribution map of the risk probability of banana and wax apple cold damage grade and the climatic risk zoning map of cold damage in Zhangzhou area were compiled.The results showed that the comprehensive climate risk index values of banana and wax apple in Zhangzhou City basically showed a decreasing trend from northwest to southeast.The comprehensive climate risk index values in the northwest inland areas were generally higher,and the risk index values in the southeast coastal areas were generally lower.The study not only quantifies the risk information of cold damage,but also provides a scientific basis for agricultural production departments to formulate appropriate disaster prevention and mitigation policies and measures.

关 键 词：寒害 大数据 风险区划 防灾减灾 漳州市 

分 类 号：S42[农业科学—植物保护]