中国区域技术演替模式研究  

Regional technological transition model in China

作　　者：李伟[1,2,3] 徐青文 贺灿飞 LIWei;XU Qingwen;HE Canfei(School of Geography,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210023,China;Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application,Nanjing 210023,China;International Research Center of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals,Beijing 100094,China;College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;Peking University-Lincoln Institute Center for Urban Development and Land Policy,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]南京师范大学地理科学学院,南京210023 [2]江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心,南京210023 [3]可持续发展大数据国际研究中心,北京100094 [4]北京大学城市与环境学院,北京100871 [5]北京大学-林肯研究院城市发展与土地政策研究中心,北京100871

出　　处：《地理研究》2023年第11期2845-2861,共17页Geographical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42001140、42171169);国家自然科学基金重点项目(41731278);可持续发展大数据国际研究中心项目(CBAS2022GSP08);江苏省双创博士项目(JSSCBS20220408)。

摘　　要：技术更新与演替对区域经济发展发挥重要作用。本文利用1985—2015年中国发明专利数据,基于演化经济地理学理论研究中国区域技术演替模式及机制。研究发现:区域技术演替可分为初始阶段、转型阶段I、转型阶段II和创新发展阶段。在不同阶段,区域技术进入、存续与退出表现出不同组合模式。在初始阶段,区域技术演替表现为高技术进入率、高技术退出率和低技术存续率;在转型阶段I,技术进入率继续维持在高位,技术退出率开始下降,二者之差逐步扩大;在转型阶段II,技术进入率开始持续下降,技术退出率下降速度变低,二者之差逐步收窄;在创新发展阶段,技术进入率与退出率大体保持一致并且维持在低位。在四个阶段转变过程中,区域优势技术数量呈Logistic增长曲线。最后,本文从与国际技术前沿的距离、可供学习与模仿的技术数量、集聚效应和区域技术分工水平四个方面对区域技术演替机制展开了初步探讨。本研究可对区域科技政策制定提供一定启示。Evolutionary economic geography has highlighted the crucial role of technological renewal and evolution in regional economic development.In current evolutionary economic geography studies,much attention has been paid to the role of technological relatedness in the entry,survival,and exit of technologies.However,these studies usually analyze the entry,survival and exit of technologies separately and do not take the entry,survival and exit of technologies as a whole.In this study,we take the entry,survival and exit of technologies together and analyze the characteristics of regional technological transition in different regional economic stages using Chinese invention patent data from 1985 to 2015.The main findings are as follows.First,the regional technological transition process includes four primary stages:the initial stage,transition stage I,transition stage II,and innovation development stage.A high entry rate,a high exit rate,and a low survival rate of the technology are typical characteristics of the initial stage.In transition stage I,the technology entry rate remains high,whereas the exit rate begins to decline with a widening gap between them.In transition stage II,the technology entry rate starts to decrease and the exit rate decreases more slowly than in the previous stage.During this stage,the gap between entry and exit rates narrows.In the innovation development stage,technology entry and exit rates remain at a low level and are approximately equal.Second,regional technological diversity is shaped as a logistic curve during the four-stage transitional process.Third,this study also analyzes the driving factors that affect the regional technological transition process from four aspects:distance to international technological frontiers,the number of technologies that can be learned and imitated from developed countries,agglomeration economics,and degree of regional technological division.The distance to international technological frontiers and the number of technologies that can be learned and imitated

关 键 词：演化经济地理学 区域技术演替 技术进入、存续与退出 经济发展水平 经济复杂度 

分 类 号：F124.3[经济管理—世界经济]