国家和产业尺度下南海周边国家地缘经济关系演变与启示  

Analysis and inspiration of geo-economic relations among nations surrounding the South China Sea on the national and industrial scales

作　　者：马腾 李一杰 杜德斌[3] 胡志丁 MATeng;LI Yi-jie;DU De-bin;HU Zhi-ding(Alibaba Business School,Hangzhou Normal University,Hangzhou 311121,China;School of Urban and Regional Science,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China;Institute for Global Innovation and Development,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China)

机构地区：[1]杭州师范大学阿里巴巴商学院,杭州311121 [2]上海财经大学城市与区域科学学院,上海200433 [3]华东师范大学全球创新与发展研究院,上海200062

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2023年第11期2722-2740,共19页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(20&ZD138);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(22YJCZH126);浙江省高校人文社科重大攻关青年重点项目(2023QN009)。

摘　　要：以南海周边国家为研究对象,采用国家间的贸易数据,基于地缘经济联系紧密度模型与产业结构相似系数模型,分析2003—2021年国家与产业尺度下地缘经济关系,讨论潜在的影响因素,结果表明:(1)地缘经济联系紧密度上,国家尺度呈上升趋势,核心区域由南向北转移;产业尺度整体呈上升趋势,不同行业的增速差异显著;海洋产业呈现南北东相互制衡的三核心局面。(2)产业竞合关系上,国家尺度呈现多极化发展趋势,国别差异明显;行业内竞合关系稳定,但行业间差距扩大;海洋产业国别差异显著,整体竞争大于合作。(3)空间因素、自然禀赋因素、文化因素和制度环境在不同的尺度与行业对地缘经济联系紧密度和产业竞合关系的影响存在明显差异。The analysis of geo-economic relations from an industrial scale provides valuable insights into comprehending the formation of the prevailing international industrial division of labor pattern and the distribution of interests among nations.Therefore,it becomes imperative to introduce a more microscopic industrial scale into geo-economic analysis to gain a deeper understanding of these dynamics.Taking the nations surrounding the South China Sea as the research object,using national trade data,based on the geo-economic tightness model and the industrial structure similarity coefficient model,this paper calculates the geo-economic connection tightness and industrial coopetition relationship on the national and industrial scales of the nations surrounding the South China Sea from 2003 to 2021,and uses the fixed-effect model to analyze the potential influencing factors.The results reveal several significant findings.Firstly,the overall geo-economic tightness among the nations surrounding the South China Sea exhibits an upward trend,accompanied by a gradual shift in the core area from the southern to the northern region.Within the context of the industrial scale,the tightness of geo-economic relations displays an overall growth trajectory;however,notable variations in growth rates are observed across different industries.Notably,the machinery and transport equipment industry experiences a substantially higher growth rate compared to other sectors.Moreover,the geo-economic tightness within the marine industry presents a three-core pattern,characterized by opposing dynamics between the northern,southern,and eastern regions.Secondly,the industrial competition and cooperation relationship between nations surrounding the South China Sea demonstrates a multipolar development trend,with significant disparities observed among nations.The coopetition relationships across various industries exhibit relative stability on the whole,lacking any evident trend towards competition or cooperation.Nevertheless,there exists an upward tr

关 键 词：地缘经济 产业尺度 产业结构相似系数 南海 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易]