粮食国际贸易网络的演化博弈模型  

An evolutionary game model for international food trade network

作　　者：陈六君 高远 刘艳 卢思予 樊晓辉 陈家伟 CHEN Liujun;GAO Yuan;LIU Yan;LU Siyu;FAN Xiaohui;CHEN Jiawei(School of Systems Science,Beijing Normal University,100875,Beijing,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学系统科学学院,北京100875

出　　处：《北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第5期763-768,共6页Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(22BRK021)。

摘　　要：新冠疫情和俄乌冲突等突发事件使全球粮食贸易受到了严重冲击,粮食进口国如何采取适当措施应对粮食进口冲击,是控制粮食国际贸易风险的关键问题之一.本文参考2018年全球大米进出口贸易数据,构建了粮食国际贸易网络的演化博弈模型.通过模拟分析了进口国粮食贸易策略的关键参数“历史依赖度”对粮食进口冲击的影响.结果表明:过低的历史依赖度会导致贸易集中度较高,同时也会加大进口国受高强度冲击的概率;而过高的历史依赖度则会导致中度以上冲击的概率较大.因此,各进口国要控制粮食进口受冲击的风险,需要将历史依赖度保持在适当的水平.The global COVID-19 epidemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict have seriously affected global food trade.How importing countries take proper measures to deal with food import shocks is a key issue to control risks of international food trade.An evolutionary game model for international food trade network was developed in this paper,with reference to the 2018 global rice import and export trade data.A key parameter of import strategies,historical dependence,was proposed,and its impact on food import shocks was analyzed.Low historical dependence was found to lead to a high trade concentration and increase the probability of high-intensity shocks.However,high historical dependence would increase the probability of shocks of medium or above intermediate intensity.To control the risk of food import shocks,importing countries need to maintain their historical dependence at moderate levels.

关 键 词：粮食国际贸易 贸易集中度 粮食进口冲击 演化博弈模型 

分 类 号：F74[经济管理—国际贸易]