经济复杂度与出口计价货币选择——基于金融发展的异质性视角  

Economic Complexity and Export Invoicing Currency Choice:A Heterogeneous Perspective of Financial Development

作　　者：陶坤玉 齐雯 张礼卿[2] TAO Kunyu;QI Wen;ZHANG Liqing(School of Finance,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学金融学院 [2]中央财经大学金融学院国际金融研究中心

出　　处：《金融评论》2023年第5期27-55,125,共30页Chinese Review of Financial Studies

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目《稳慎推进人民币国际化的策略和路径》(项目号:21AZD066);“中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金”;“中央财经大学科研创新团队支持计划资助”的资助。

摘　　要：本文基于国家综合竞争力与货币选择的网络联系,将经济复杂度从微观产品维度整合到宏观国家竞争力层面,研究了经济复杂度对出口计价货币选择的影响及其机制,并讨论了金融发展的异质性影响。本文首先构造理论模型,指出经济复杂度会通过产品多样性和技术独特性这两个维度,并借助金融发展的调节作用影响计价货币选择。一方面,经济复杂度代表该国的生产贸易结构与出口竞争力,经济复杂度水平越高,出口贸易中本币的计价份额越高;另一方面,金融发展水平的提高可以缓解企业的融资约束,进一步增强国家经济复杂度对出口本币计价份额的提升作用。利用对1995~2019年92个国家的面板数据展开的分位数回归与稳健性检验,本文有以下发现。第一,在经济复杂度水平较低时,经济复杂度的增加可以较快地提升其本币在贸易计价中的占比、降低对美元的依赖程度;但在较高经济复杂度水平时,这种促进作用会减小。第二,在金融发展水平较低的新兴市场国家,经济复杂度对本币选择的促进作用表现为线性;而在金融发展程度高的发达国家,这种正向影响先增强后减弱。第三,经济复杂度通过产品结构的多样性与独特性两个维度提升本币计价占比。第四,相较于金融市场,一国金融机构的发展更能强化经济复杂度的边际影响。This paper explores the intricate relationship between a nation 's overall competitiveness,the internationalization of its currency,and the nuanced influence of financial development.Employing a theoretical model,we demonstrate that economic complexity,when mediated by financial development,exerts a positive impact on the proportion of exporters employing their native currency for pricing.This effect is realized through the channels of product diversity and ubiquity.Empirical validation is conducted using panel data encompassing 92 countries over the period of 1995 to 2019.The findings unveil several key insights.Firstly,a non-linear correlation is observed between economic complexity and currency choice.As economic complexity ascends,a greater share of producers prefer native currency pricing over USD denomination,although this effect plateaus at higher complexity levels.Secondly,in emerging markets characterized by limited financial development,economic complexity exhibits a linear positive influence on producers 'currency choice.Conversely,in advanced economies with robust financial infrastructure,this influence demonstrates a non-linear pattern.Thirdly,economic complexity fosters an increased prevalence of exporters' currency pricing through channels of diversified product offerings and heightened technical distinctiveness.Finally,bolstering financial institutions amplifies the marginal impact of economic complexity on invoicing currency choice.

关 键 词：经济复杂度 贸易计价货币选择 货币国际化 金融发展 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易]