基于Bayesian-MCMC算法的水利工程投标报价分布预测  

Prediction of Bidding Quotation Distribution for Water Conservancy Projects Based on Bayesian-MCMC Algorithm

作　　者：王绪民 郑顺超 WANG Xu-min;ZHENG Shun-chao(College of Civil Engineering and Environment,Hubei University of Technology,Wuhan 430068,China;China Construction Third Engineering Bureau Group South China Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 510623,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北工业大学土木建筑与环境学院,湖北武汉430068 [2]中建三局集团华南有限公司,广东广州510623

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2023年第9期155-158,206,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：“科技助力经济2020”重点专项项目(2020ZLSH08)。

摘　　要：投标是水利工程承包商获取项目的主要途径,投标报价的高低直接影响承包商能否获取项目的承建权,投标前对拟投水利工程投标报价分布进行预测可优化己方报价制定。为此,通过全局寻优的Bayesian-MCMC算法对投标报价分布模型进行反演,并通过数值分析模拟承包商投标行为。结果表明,Bayesian-MCMC算法无需考虑贝叶斯估计中先验分布与似然函数的共轭性,且模拟所需数据更少,得到的分布稳定性好且更加精确。Bidding is the main way for a hydraulic engineering contractor to obtain a project,and the level of the bid price directly affects whether the contractor can obtain its construction right.Before bidding,predicting the distribution of the bid price of the proposed hydraulic engineering can optimize the formulation of its own quotation.A global optimization Bayesian-MCMC algorithm was used to predict the Beta distribution parameters.Bidding behavior of contractor was simulated by numeric analysis.The algorithm does not need to consider the conjugate of the prior distribution and likelihood function in Bayesian estimation.The numerical simulation results show that the Bayesian-MCMC algorithm requires less data for simulation and has better prediction effect than the traditional moment estimation method.

关 键 词：投标报价分布 Bayesian-MCMC算法 BETA分布 数值模拟 预测 

分 类 号：TV-9[水利工程] TU723.2[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]