用世界游泳锦标赛成绩开展巴黎奥运会游泳项目成绩发展态势分析及灰色预测  

Performance Development Trend Analysis of Swimming Events at the Paris Olympic Games through the Results of the World Swimming Championships and Grey Prediction

作　　者：陈戍银 敬龙军 Chen Shuyin;Jing LongJun(Schol of Physical Education,Hunan University of Science and Technology,Xiangtan 411201,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南科技大学体育学院,湖南湘潭411201

出　　处：《体育科技文献通报》2023年第10期4-9,共6页Bulletin of Sport Science & Technology

摘　　要：本文运用数理统计、比较分析、灰色预测等研究方法对世界游泳锦标赛游泳项目的发展态势进行分析,运用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)理论对2024年巴黎奥运会单人游泳项目冠军运动员成绩进行预测。研究结果表明:(1)世界游泳锦标赛短距离游泳项目的发展除女子100米蝶泳之外,都呈上升趋势,但男子50米、100米蛙泳成绩起伏变化不大;(2)世界游泳锦标赛中距离游泳项目的发展趋势具有一致性,都呈显著性上升趋势,且男子200米蛙泳、400米混合泳和女子200米、400米自由泳皆刷新世界纪录;(3)世界游泳锦标赛长距离游泳项目的发展都呈现显著提升的趋势;(4)世界游泳锦标赛接力赛游泳项目的女子发展水平较快,其中女子4×100米自由泳接力、4×200米自由泳接力和混合4×100米自由泳接力比赛皆刷新世界纪录;男子发展变化却相对较慢;(5)中国队参加2024年巴黎奥运会单人游泳项目冠军运动员成绩的预测值会有一定幅度上升,其中男子50米、100米、200米蛙泳继续夺金的可能性极大,女子50米、100米蝶泳和800米自由泳的希望较大,有望刷新多项游泳项目的世界纪录。By using the methods of mathematical statistics,comparative analysis and grey prediction,this paper analyzes the development trend of swimming events in the World Swimming Championships,and uses the grey prediction model GM(1,1)theory to predict the performance of single events swimming champions in the 2024 Paris Olympic Games.The results show that:(a)The development of short-distance swimming events in the World Swimming Championships is on the rise except for the women's 100-meter butterfly,but the men's 50-meter and 100-meter breaststroke results have not changed much;(b)The development trend of distance swimming events in the World Aquatics Championships is consistent,showing a significant upward trend,and the men's 200-meter breaststroke,400-meter medley and women's 200-meter,400-meter freestyle all set world records;(c)The development of long-distance swimming events in the World Swimming Championships has shown a significant upward trend;(d)The women's development level of the relay swimming event of the World Swimming Championships is relatively fast.Among them,the women's 4×100-meter freestyle relay,4×200-meter freestyle relay and mixed 4×100-meter freestyle relay all set new world records.The development of men is relatively slow;(e)The predicted value of the Chinese team's performance in the single-person swimming event of the 2024 Paris Olympic Games will increase to a certain extent.Among them,the men's 50-meter,100--meter,and 200-meter breaststrokes are extremely likely to continue to win gold.The women's 50-meter,100-meter butterfly and 800-meter freestyle have greater hopes and are expected to refresh the world records of many swimming events.

关 键 词：游泳锦标赛 巴黎奥运会 游泳成绩 发展态势 灰色预测 

分 类 号：G861.1[文化科学—体育训练]