快速城镇化中传统农区小城镇规模演变与影响因素  

Evolution of Town Size and Its Influencing Factors in Traditional Agricultural Areas During the Rapid Urbanization

作　　者：唐永[1,2] 李小建[1,3] 胡雪瑶[1] 刘雪怡 TANG Yong;LI Xiaojian;HU Xueyao;LIU Xueyi(The Collage of Geography and Environmental Science,Henan University,Kaifeng 475001,Henan,China;Zhengzhou Urban Planning Design and Survey Research Institute,Zhengzhou 450052,Henan,China;Collaborative Innovation Center of Urban-Rural Coordinated Development/Academician Laboratory for Urban and Rural Spatial Data Mining,Henan University of Economics and Law,Zhengzhou 450046,Henan,China)

机构地区：[1]河南大学地理与环境学院,中国河南开封475001 [2]郑州市规划勘测设计研究院,中国河南郑州450052 [3]河南财经政法大学城乡协调发展河南省协同创新中心/河南省城乡空间数据挖掘院士工作站,中国河南郑州450046

出　　处：《经济地理》2023年第10期148-159,共12页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41971223);黄河文明省部共建协同创新中心/黄河文明与可持续发展研究中心重大项目(2020M18)。

摘　　要：在传统农区,小城镇作为服务带动乡村发展的重要节点,对推动城乡融合和就地城镇化具有重要意义。文章在理论分析基础上,构建小城镇规模及演变分析框架,基于2005—2020年这一河南省城镇化快速发展阶段,以河南省3个县级单元作为典型区域进行分析。研究表明:①小城镇规模在各阶段总体持续扩张,扩张强度呈现一定的差异性。②在2005—2010、2011—2015、2016—2020年3个时段,小城镇总体规模演变速率呈逐步下降但趋势放缓特征,人口规模演变速率在2016—2020年阶段重新上升。不同尺度的对比分析表明,小城镇人口规模演变速率波动最为明显。③除宏观政策外,小城镇规模的核心影响因素为初始规模基础、企业家和乡贤能力,其次为对外交通网密度、产业发展水平、海拔高程等;小城镇规模变化量的影响因素探测结果相对较弱,其影响机制更为复杂。④GWR模型显示小城镇规模影响因素存在空间分异性,随着时间的推移,其分异性也处于变化之中。文章有助于丰富传统农区小城镇发展规律研究,为类似区域小城镇发展政策制定等提供一定的参考。In traditional rural areas,small towns,as an important node in serving and driving rural development,are important carriers for realizing urban-rural integration and local urbanization.Based on theoretical analysis and taking typical counties in Henan Province as the research area,this paper constructs a framework for analyzing the size and evolution of small towns at the rapid development stage of urbanization from 2005 to 2020.The results show that:1)The town size has been continuously improved in the process of rapid urbanization,and it has the expansion difference among three counties.2)The evolution rate of town size has been showed a gradual decline but a slowing trend in 2005-2010,2011-2015 and 2016-2020,the evolution rate of population size has been rising in 2016-2020.3)The analysis of Geographic detector shows that the development of towns is the result of a series of interaction factors,among which the initial development level,the ability of social actors playing the dominant role,the traffic network density,the industrial development level,the elevation and so on.The results of the influencing factors on the size change of small towns are relatively weak,and their impact mechanisms are more complex.4)The GWR model shows that factors affecting the size expansion of small towns are different in space,and its spatial heterogeneity is also changing over time.This paper is helpful to enrich the research results on the law and mechanism of small town development.At the same time,it also provides suggestions for policymakers to support the sustainable development of towns.

关 键 词：小城镇 人口规模 建成区面积 交通 传统农区 快速城镇化 乡村振兴 

分 类 号：F291[经济管理—国民经济]