基于改进证据理论的装配式建筑施工安全风险评估  

Safety Risk Assessment of Prefabricated Building Construction Based on Improved Evidence Theory

作　　者：焦红[1] 谢亚慧 王松岩[1] JIAO Hong;XIE Yahui;WANG Songyan(School of Civil Engineering,Shandong Jianzhu University,Jinan 250101,China)

机构地区：[1]山东建筑大学土木工程学院,山东济南250101

出　　处：《土木工程与管理学报》2023年第5期75-81,共7页Journal of Civil Engineering and Management

摘　　要：为解决装配式建筑施工风险评价中专家意见的不确定性与风险决策问题,提出了一种模糊集-改进证据理论的装配式建筑风险评价模型。首先根据装配式建筑施工特点,分别从人、物、技术、管理、环境五个方面建立施工安全风险评价体系,采用结构熵权法确定指标权重,利用模糊集理论将专家评语带入隶属度函数,生成基本概率分配(BPA)函数,进行定量转化,通过基于Pignistic概率距离与冲突系数K的改进证据组合方法进行信息融合,改进的证据理论合成方法解决了高度冲突证据的融合问题,经融合后的证据最后通过线性加权,根据最大隶属度的原则,进行风险的分析与评价。通过实证分析,该方法可有效反映装配式建筑施工风险程度,证实了该评价模型的有效性和实用性。In order to solve the uncertainty of experts’opinions and risk decision-making in the risk assessment of prefabricated building,a risk assessment model of prefabricated building based on fuzzy set-improved evidence theory is proposed.Firstly,according to the characteristics of prefabricated building construction,the construction safety risk assessment system is established from five aspects,namely,human,materials,technology,management and environment.The index weight is determined by the structural entropy weight method.The expert comments are brought into the membership function by the fuzzy set theory,and the basic probability assignment(BPA)function is generated,and perform quantitative transformation.The information is fused based on the improved evidence combination method of Pignistic probability distance and conflict coefficient K.The improved evidence theory synthesis method solves the fusion problem of highly conflicting evidence.The fused evidence is finally linearly weighted,and the risk is analyzed and evaluated according to the principle of maximum subordination.Through empirical analysis,the method can effectively reflect the risk degree of prefabricated building construction,which proves the effectiveness and practicality of the evaluation model.

关 键 词：装配式建筑 证据理论 模糊集理论 风险评价 施工安全 

分 类 号：TU714[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]