基于预警理论的铁路罐车危险货物运输风险管理  

Risk Management of Dangerous Goods Transported by Railway Tanker Based on Early Warning Theory

作　　者：郝竟涵 郭湛 李利军[3] 李艳丽[1] HAO Jinghan;GUO Zhan;LI Lijun;LI Yanli(School of Management,Shijiazhuang Tiedao University,Shijiazhuang Hebei 050043,China;Railway Science&Technology Research&Development Center,China Academy of Railway Sciences Corporation Limited,Beijing 100081,China;School of Economics and Law,Shijiazhuang Tiedao University,Shijiazhuang Hebei 050043,China)

机构地区：[1]石家庄铁道大学管理学院,河北石家庄050043 [2]中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司铁道科学技术研究发展中心,北京100081 [3]石家庄铁道大学经济与法律学院,河北石家庄050043

出　　处：《中国铁路》2023年第10期114-121,共8页China Railway

基　　金：中国国家铁路集团有限公司科技研究开发计划项目(FYF2022SJ005)。

摘　　要：随着危险货物运输需求量增长,铁路罐车作为危险品运输工具发挥着越来越重要的作用,由于铁路罐车危险性极为复杂,提升其运输安全成为铁路愈发重视的问题。结合铁路危险货物运输的规范化要求,将预警理论引入铁路罐车危险货物运输领域,根据铁路罐车危险货物运输的安全风险来源建立预警指标,设置预警评价区间,进而借助层次分析法进行预警指标权重的计算,根据模糊综合评价法确定最终铁路罐车危险货物运输的预警等级,对可能出现的警情进行预报。结合企业案例,分析找出可能存在的风险,提出相应管理建议,推进实现危险货物领域铁路罐车安全运输的目标。As the demand for dangerous goods transportation increases,railway tankers play an increasingly important role as a means of transporting dangerous goods.Considering the extremely complex risks of railway tankers,improving their transportation safety has become an increasingly important issue for railways.In combination with the standardization requirements of railway transport of dangerous goods,this paper introduces the early warning theory into the field of transport of dangerous goods by railway tankers.According to the safety risk sources of transport of dangerous goods by railway tankers,early warning indicators are established,early warning evaluation intervals are set,and then the weight of early warning indicators is calculated with the help of analytic hierarchy process(AHP).According to the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,the final early warning level of transport of dangerous goods by railway tankers is determined,and the possible situation is predicted.In combination with enterprise cases,this paper analyzes and finds out possible risks and puts forward corresponding management suggestions to promote the safe transportation of dangerous goods by railway tankers.

关 键 词：预警理论 铁路罐车 危险货物 风险评价 

分 类 号：U298[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]