考虑降雨空间异质性的流域洪水过程模拟研究  

Simulation of Flood Processes in Watersheds Considering Spatial Heterogeneity of Rainfall

作　　者：刘薇 贾菁菁 刘阳[2] 曹升乐[2] 王海军 王凯 王俊[2] LIU Wei;JIA Jing-jing;LIU Yang;CAO Sheng-le;WANG Hai-jun;WANG Kai;WANG Jun(Hydrologic Center of Shandong Province,Jinan 250000,China;School of Civil Engineering,Shandong University,Jinan 250061,China;Hydrology Bureau of Huaihe Water Conservancy Commission(Information Center),Bengbu 233001,China)

机构地区：[1]山东省水文中心,山东济南250000 [2]山东大学土建与水利学院,山东济南250061 [3]淮河水利委员会水文局(信息中心),安徽蚌埠233001

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2023年第11期53-56,147,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：山东大学青年学者未来计划项目(31410082164087)。

摘　　要：气候变化等因素使得降雨时空分布不均匀性增强,研究洪水对降雨空间异质性的响应关系,对于指导干支流不同频率暴雨组合遭遇条件下的流域洪水模拟意义重大。以山东省沂河临沂站以上流域为例,应用新安江模型构建流域水文模型。利用1980~2020年6~9月逐小时降雨数据进行频率分析,推求沂河流域降雨历时为72 h的不同重现期的设计暴雨。通过不同重现期的暴雨组合设计情景,利用构建的水文模型模拟,对临沂站的洪水过程进行分析,得到降雨空间异质性对洪水过程的影响关系。结果表明,降雨空间分布对洪峰流量的影响显著,靠近流域出口的区域降雨量是洪峰流量的决定性因素,降雨空间异质性高的情景下,较小的降雨也可能产生较大的洪水峰值流量。研究结果可为降雨空间异质性导致的干支流洪水遭遇条件的下游断面洪水预报提供参考。Factors such as climate change have increased the spatial-temporal distribution heterogeneity of rainfall,it is thus important to study the response of hydrograph to the influence of the spatial heterogeneity of rainfall,which is of great importance to provide guidance to the hydrologic simulation of the flooding under conditions that the rainfall of the mainstream and tributary streams have different occurrence frequencies.The watershed above Linyi station of the Yihe River in Shandong Province was selected as an example.The watershed hydrological model was established using the Xinanjiang model.Hourly rainfall data from June to September from 1980 to 2020 were used for frequency analysis to obtain the design storms with different return periods in the Yihe river basin with a duration of 72 h.The flood process at Linyi station was analyzed by considering combined design scenarios of design storms with different return periods.Simulations were run using the established hydrologic model to obtain the response of flood process to the spatial heterogeneity of rainfall.The results show that the spatial distribution of rainfall has a significant impact on peak flows,with rainfall in areas close to the basin outlet being the determining factor for peak flood flows,and that smaller amounts of rainfall can produce larger peak flows in scenarios with high spatial heterogeneity of rainfall.The results can provide reference for the flood forecasting of downstream cross-sections under conditions that the mainstream and tributary floods have different occurrence frequencies due to spatial heterogeneity of rainfall.

关 键 词：降雨空间异质性 沂河流域 新安江模型 设计暴雨 

分 类 号：TV122.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]