近30年来中国城乡人口结构变化及其区域差异  

Changes in urban and rural population structure and regional differences in China during the past 30 years

作　　者：林港特 龚建周[1] 陈康林 陈晓越[1] 邱霓[1] LIN Gang-te;GONG Jian-zhou;CHEN Kang-lin;CHEN Xiao-yue;QIU Ni(School of Geography and Remote Sensing,Guangzhou University,Guangzhou 510006,China)

机构地区：[1]广州大学地理科学与遥感学院,广东广州510006

出　　处：《广州大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第5期84-95,共12页Journal of Guangzhou University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上资助项目(42071123);国家自然科学基金青年资助项目(42201104);中国博士后面上基金资助项目(2023M730758);广东省哲学社会科学“十三五”规划2019年度资助项目(GD19CGL19);广州市哲学社会科学发展“十三五”规划2019年度共建资助课题(2019GZGJ235)。

摘　　要：自然资源禀赋和社会经济的区域差异导致人口频繁迁移,不仅深刻影响着中国人口分布格局,而且成为改变区域人口结构的关键因素。20世纪90年代以来,随着改革开放不断深入,中国经济由高速发展向高质量发展转变,造成区域城乡发展差距和人口结构的新变化,对社会经济发展产生深远影响。文章基于4次城乡人口普查数据(省级),运用人口重心模型、标准差椭圆、等值区域图等研究方法,探讨1990—2020年中国城乡人口数量和内部结构的时空格局演变特征,揭示城乡融合发展中面临着突出的人口问题。结果表明:①中国乡村地区面临日益严重的人口流失问题,而黑龙江省城镇地区也出现人口负增长的现象;②中国城乡人口仍保持“东多西少、南多北少”不平衡的分布格局,但东西区域差异有所缩小;③中国城乡处于人口老龄化加剧阶段,乡村和经济较发达地区人口老龄化则具有“起步早、程度深”的特征,但其成因存在明显差异;④近30年来,中国城乡抚养比由“高少儿、低老年”模式向“中少儿、中老年”模式转换,城乡人口抚养结构趋于恶化,尤其是乡村地区面临着更为沉重的人口抚养负担。其研究成果可为了解中国城乡人口发展现状提供参考,也能从人口的角度,为解决城乡发展不平衡的问题提供借鉴,从而促进城乡融合发展。Regional differences in natural resource endowments,society and the economy,the causes of frequent population migration,has not only had a significant impact on the pattern of China s population distribution,but also is a key factor in regional demographic structure.Since the 1990s,with the deepening of China s reform and opening-up,China has witnessed its economy shift from high-speed growth to high-quality development.However,the transformation has also brought new changes in regional urban-rural gap and demographic structure,which have profound effects on society and the economy.Based on the data from four provincial-level censuses in China from 1990 to 2020,this paper analyzes the characteristics of the evolution of the spatio-temporal patterns of the population size and internal population structure in urban and rural areas,and the prominent demographic problems faced in the integrated development of urban and rural areas using the methods of the population center of gravity model,standard deviation ellipse,and choroplethic map.The results are as follows:①Rural areas in China are facing increasing population loss,and urban areas in Heilongjiang Province are beginning to enter a phase of negative population growth;②There still remains a significant difference of population distribution in China s urban and rural areas,which shows a pattern of“more people living in the east and less in the west,more in the south and less in the north”,but the regional gap between the east and the west has been narrowed;③China s urban and rural areas are experiencing deepening population aging,and the aging of the population in rural and more economically developed areas presents a characteristic of“early start and deeper level”,but there are obvious differences in its causes;④In the past 30 years,the population dependency ratio in urban and rural areas of China has shifted from“high child-age dependency rate,low elderly dependency rate”to“middle child-age dependency rate,middle elderly dependency rate”,

关 键 词：城乡人口 数量结构 内部结构 人口问题 时空特征 区域差异 

分 类 号：K901.3[历史地理—人文地理学]