系统性金融风险对经济增长的影响及政策调控效果  

Research on Effect of Systemic Financial Risk on Economic Growth and Policy Regulation Effect

作　　者：贾妍妍 武坤 杨涛[2] JIA Yanyan;WU Kun;YANG Tao(School of Finance,Tianjin University of Finance and Economics,Tianjin 300221,China;School of Business,Shandong University,Weihai 264209,China)

机构地区：[1]天津财经大学金融学院,天津300221 [2]山东大学商学院,山东威海264209

出　　处：《中南财经政法大学学报》2023年第6期52-65,共14页Journal of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“‘稳增长’与‘防风险’双重目标的理论解构、量化评估与政策应对研究”(23CJY036)。

摘　　要：稳增长与防风险是监管当局目前关注的重点。本文基于在险增长模型(GaR)考察了系统性金融风险对经济增长的影响,并从系统性金融风险的高低状态方面探讨了影响的异质性,同时探究了不同类型宏观政策对经济脆弱性的调控效果。研究结果表明,首先,从系统性金融风险对经济增长的影响来看,系统性金融风险对经济下行风险的影响比对经济上行风险的影响更为明显,系统性金融风险对经济增长的短期影响较长期影响更明显。其次,从系统性金融风险的潜在状态来看,高系统性金融风险状态会降低经济增长,低系统性金融风险状态会提高经济增长。最后,从政策调控效果来看,紧缩性价格型货币政策会提高经济脆弱性,宽松性数量型货币政策会降低经济脆弱性,宽松性财政政策会提高经济脆弱性。本文将系统性金融风险与经济增长纳入统一框架,为实现稳增长与防风险的动态平衡提供参考。The key concerns of regulatory authorities are stabilizing growth and preventing risks.Based on the growth at risk(GaR)model,this paper examines the impact of systemic financial risk on economic growth.Moreover,this paper analyses the heterogeneity of the impact based on the basis of the high and low states of systemic financial risk,and then explores the regulatory effects of different types of macroeconomic policies on the vulnerability of economy.The results show that,firstly,from the view of systemic financial risk's impact on economic growth,systemic financial risk has greater impacts on economic downside risk than on economic upside risk and has a short-term effect which is greater than a long-term one on the economic vulnerability.Secondly,in terms of different states of systemic financial risk,high systemic financial risk could reduce economic growth while low systemic financial risk could increase economic growth.Finally,from the perspective of policy regulation,price-type tight monetary policy could increase the economic vulnerability,and quantity-type loose monetary policy could reduce the economic vulnerability,while loose fiscal policies would increase economic vulnerability.This paper explores the concept of a single framework that integrates systemic financial risk with economic growth in order to provide a reference for achieving a dynamic balance between growth stability and risk control.

关 键 词：系统性金融风险 经济增长 在险增长模型 经济脆弱性 政策调控效果 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]