Copula函数在漳河上游联合干旱特征分析中的应用  

Application of Copula Function in Analysis of Joint Drought Characteristics in Zhanghe Upstream

作　　者：宋亚轩 索梅芹 刘丽博 SONG Ya-xuan;SUO Mei-qin;LIU Li-bo(School of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power,Hebei University of Engineering,Handan 056038,China;Hebei Key Laboratory of Intelligent Water Conservancy,Hebei University of Engineering,Handan 056038,China)

机构地区：[1]河北工程大学水利水电学院,河北邯郸056038 [2]河北工程大学河北省智慧水利重点实验室,河北邯郸056038

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2023年第10期1-5,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(61873084)。

摘　　要：为综合描述漳河上游干旱事件,选取月降水数据计算标准化降水指数,应用游程理论识别干旱历时和干旱强度两种干旱特征变量,并采用Copula函数构建两种干旱特征变量间的联合分布,探究干旱特征的时空分布。结果表明,漳河上游2001~2020年发生频率最高干旱事件为3个月历时干旱,干旱强度范围为2.24~4.92;干旱历时和干旱强度间存在强正相关性,Frank Copula函数为二者最优联合分布;干旱特征联合重现期范围为18.56~23.94年,在漳河上游西北和东南流域表现2个干旱高风险区,同现重现期范围为22.25~31.94年,在西北、东北和东南流域表现3个干旱高风险区。联合分布综合分析了干旱事件,可为全面评估旱情提供科学参考。The aim of this paper is to describe the drought events in the Zhanghe upstream comprehensively.Firstly,monthly precipitation data were selected to calculate standardized precipitation index.And then,both drought duration and drought severity were identified according to runoff theory.Finally,Copula function was adopted to establish joint distribution between drought duration and drought severity to explore the spatial and temporal distribution of drought characteristics.The results show that the highest frequent drought events in the Zhanghe upstream from 2001 to 2020 is 3 months drought,and the drought severity ranges from 2.24 to 4.92;There is a strong positive correlation between drought duration and drought severity,and Frank Copula function is the most optimal joint distribution function of them;The joint return period of drought characteristics ranges from 18.56-23.94 years,and the northwest and southeast parts of the Zhanghe upstream basin are the two key drought risk areas;The co-occurrence return period of drought characteristics ranges from 22.25-31.94 years,and the northwest,northeast and southeast parts of the Zhanghe upstream basin are the three key drought risk areas.Consequently,it can be obtained that the joint distribution can analyze drought events comprehensively,and thus provide scientific guidance for thorough evaluation of drought.

关 键 词：漳河上游 COPULA函数 干旱历时 干旱强度 联合分布 

分 类 号：TV11[水利工程—水文学及水资源]