基于多种趋势分析方法的降水演变趋势分析  

Trend Analysis of Precipitation Evolution Based on Multiple Trend Analysis Methods

作　　者：李昕阳 杜军凯[2] 胡新功 仇亚琴[2] 刘海滢 LI Xin-yang;DU Jun-kai;HU Xin-gong;QIU Ya-qin;LIU Hai-ying(School of Water Conservancy,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450046,China;Department of Water Resources,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;Yili Hydrological Survey Bureau,Yili 835000,China)

机构地区：[1]华北水利水电大学水利学院,河南郑州450046 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所,北京100038 [3]伊犁水文勘测局,新疆伊犁835000

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2023年第10期14-18,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52279030)。

摘　　要：为了解决现有降水趋势分析方法无法同时检测低、高值区雨量趋势的问题,引入创新性趋势分析法(ITA),并与传统趋势分析方法联合应用。以1961~2020年伊犁河流域站点数据为例,将ITA与Mann-Kendall(MK)系列、Theil-Sen等7种方法进行对比分析。结果表明,伊犁河流域站点年降水量整体呈增加趋势,流域北部除霍城站和伊宁县站、南部除昭苏站外,其余站点高值区雨量增加趋势显著;北部霍尔果斯站与伊宁县站、南部巩留站与特克斯站极端降水强度大小呈集中趋势。ITA与传统趋势分析方法相比,可以体现雨量变化范围并检测低、中、高值区雨量的变化趋势,因此将ITA与传统趋势方法联合,对整体雨量与高低区雨量同时进行趋势分析,有助于更全面地解析伊犁河流域降水变化规律。In order to solve the problem that the current existing precipitation trend analysis methods cannot simultaneously detect precipitation trends in low and high value areas,this article introduces innovative trend analysis(ITA) and combines it with traditional trend analysis methods for analysis.Taking the station data of Yili River basin from 1961 to 2020 as an example,the ITA and Mann-Kendall(MK) series,Theil Sen and other seven methods are compared and analyzed.The results show that the annual precipitation of stations in Yili River basin,except Huocheng Station,Yining County Station and Zhaosu Station,increases significantly in other stations in high value areas,which is the same as the trend of annual extreme precipitation;The extreme precipitation intensity in the low and median areas of other stations shows an increasing trend,while the high value areas show a decreasing trend,and the overall trend is increasing;The ITA can reflect the range of rainfall changes and detect the trend changes of rainfall in low,medium,and high value areas.Therefore,the combination of ITA and traditional trend method to conduct trend analysis on the overall rainfall and rainfall in high and low regions simultaneously will help to more comprehensively analyze the precipitation change law of Yili River basin.

关 键 词：Mann-Kendall趋势检验 ITA趋势分析 降水趋势 伊犁河流域 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P333[天文地球—水文科学]