近30年四川省山洪灾害风险时空变化及其成因分析  

Analysis of Changes and Causes of Mountain Torrent Disaster Risk in Sichuan Province in the Past 30 Years

作　　者：元媛[1,2] 韩剑桥 金中武[1,2] 郭超[1,2] 刘泓汐 YUAN Yuan;HAN Jian-qiao;JIN Zhong-wu;GUO Chao;LIU Hong-xi(Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute of Changjiang Water Resources Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources,Wuhan 430010,China;Key Laboratory of Ministry of Water Resources on River&Lake Regulation and Flood Control in Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River,Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute,Wuhan 430010,China;Institute of Soil and Water Conservation,Northwest A&F University,Yangling 712100,China;Key Laboratory for Water and Sediment Science,Ministry of Education,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]水利部长江水利委员会长江科学院,湖北武汉430010 [2]水利部长江中下游河湖治理与防洪重点实验室,湖北武汉430010 [3]西北农林科技大学水土保持研究所,陕西杨凌712100 [4]北京师范大学水沙科学教育部重点实验室,北京100875

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2023年第10期62-66,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2019YFC1510704);水沙科学与水灾害防治湖南省重点实验室开放基金(2021SS01)。

摘　　要：为探究四川省山洪灾害风险的时空分布规律及归因,采用层次分析、聚类分析等方法,研究了1990、2020年四川省山洪风险的空间分布差异与高风险重点区域,探讨了山洪风险的时间变化特征及驱动原因。结果表明,四川省山洪灾害风险由西部向东部地区逐渐增加,高风险区域多存在于河网密集,且暴露性和脆弱性较高的区域,主要集中在眉山市、自贡市、内江市、资阳市、遂宁市、广安市和南充市;1990~2020年,四川省整体山洪风险呈增加趋势,较高及以上风险区面积占比由17%增至34%,风险等级增加的区域集中在四川省中部,且大部分由中等或较高风险区转变为高风险区;近30年来,四川省的山洪危险性呈下降趋势,但较大的GDP和人口密度使其脆弱性和防灾能力发生变化,从而导致局部区域山洪风险等级有所增加。研究结果可为四川省的洪水灾害预报预警及防灾减灾工作提供理论指导和实践支撑。To explore the temporal and spatial distribution and attribution of mountain torrent disaster risk in Sichuan Province,the spatial distribution difference and high-risk areas of mountain torrent risk during 1990-2020 were studied by AHP and cluster analysis methods,and the changing characteristic and driving reason were investigated.The results show that the risk of mountain torrent disasters increased from the west to the east in Sichuan Province.High-risk areas mostly existed in areas with dense river networks and high exposure and vulnerability,such as Meishan,Zigong,Neijiang,Ziyang,Suining,Guangan and Nanchong.From 1990 to 2020,the risk of mountain torrents showed an increasing trend in Sichuan Province.The proportion of areas with high and above risk increased from 17% to 34%.Increased risk levels were concentrated in central Sichuan,and most of them were from moderately high and relatively high risk transformed into high risk.In the past 30 years,the risk of mountain torrents has shown a downward trend in Sichuan Province,while the greater GDP and population density had changed vulnerability and disaster prevention capacity,leading to increasing risk level of mountain torrents in local areas.The results can provide theoretical guidance and practical support for forecast and early warn in flood disaster and disaster prevention and mitigation in Sichuan Province.

关 键 词：山洪灾害 时空分布 防灾减灾 四川省 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]