基于专家可信度与LEC-FCE法的水利工程安全风险评价  

Hydraulic Engineering Safety Risk Assessment Based on Expert Credibility and LEC-FCE Method

作　　者：陶飞飞 皮妍玲 蒋勇[2] TAO Fei-fei;PI Yan-ling;JIANG Yong(College of Computer and Information,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;College of Civil and Transportation Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学计算机与信息学院,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学土木与交通学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2023年第10期171-175,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：江苏省水利科技项目(2020014);国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1508100);国家自然科学基金项目(42001250)。

摘　　要：水利工程施工存在现场复杂多变和作业难度高等特点,对危险源进行风险评价是安全分级管控的前提。传统作业条件危险性评价(LEC)法存在主观因素影响程度较大、危险源权重不明的缺陷。为此,引入专家可信度将风险评价主体之间的背景差异转换为定量分析,对主观缺陷进行改善修正;将模糊综合评价(FCE)法与LEC法相结合,建立风险评价指标体系,通过修正后的LEC法得到的风险值计算各指标权重,同时利用隶属度矩阵将定性的风险评价转化为定量的风险评价,解决了LEC法中权重不明的缺陷。利用该方法对新孟河延伸拓浚工程进行实例分析,证明该方法在风险评价的客观性方面有明显改善,为水利工程安全风险分级管控提供了科学依据。In view of the complex and changeable construction site and high difficulty in construction of water conservancy safety,the risk assessment of all hazard sources is the premise of safety control of a project.The traditional LEC method has the defects of large influence of subjective factors and unclear weight of each hazard source.Based on the introduction of expert credibility,the background differences between risk evaluation subjects were converted to quantitative analysis,and the subjective impairments was modified.This paper combined fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method with traditional LEC method to establish the risk evaluation index system.By calculating every index weight factor with the modified risk values in LEC method,the risk assessment was converted from qualitative to quantitative by membership degree matrix and the defection of imprecise weight factor in LEC method was solved.Finally,a verification of Xinmeng River shows that the objectivity of risk assessment of hazard sources has been improved significantly through the modified method,which provides scientific basis for the risk hierarchical control of water conservancy safety.

关 键 词：水利工程 安全风险评价 LEC法 FCE法 专家可信度 

分 类 号：TV512[水利工程—水利水电工程]