共同富裕视角下低收入人口界定、测算及特征分析  

The Low-income Population in the Perspective of Common Prosperity:Definition,Estimation and Characteristics Analysis

作　　者：谭清香[1] 檀学文[1] 左茜 TAN Qingxiang;TAN Xuewen;ZUO Qian

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院农村发展研究所,北京100732 [2]中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院,北京102401

出　　处：《农业经济问题》2023年第10期56-69,共14页Issues in Agricultural Economy

基　　金：中国社会科学院农村发展研究所创新工程研究类A类项目“面向2035年中国反贫困和促进共享繁荣发展战略与政策研究”(编号:2021NFSA02);国家社会科学基金重大项目“建立和完善农村低收入人口常态化帮扶机制研究”(编号:21&ZD177)。

摘　　要：本文将中等收入下限标准作为低收入标准,根据收入动态变化,将低收入人口划分为持久性低收入人口和潜在中等收入人口。持久性低收入人口指到2035年仍无法达到中等收入下限的人口,根据中增收方案的收入预测,2020年中国农村和城镇持久性低收入人口规模分别为2.53亿人和1.38亿人,分别相当于农村和城镇常住人口的49.57%和15.26%。到2035年,约有0.8亿持久性低收入人口由农村进入城镇,导致城镇持久性低收入人口比例提高到20.41%。利用住户样本数据分析了农村持久性低收入人口不利结构性特征,以及增收和改善福祉面临的困难。针对低收入群体“提低”政策思路是促进包容性增长和共享繁荣发展。Low-income population is divided into chronic low-income population and potential middle-income population,based on dynamic change of income and defining the lower-bound threshold of middle-income group as the low-income line.The chronic low-income population refers to those who will not reach the lower-bound threshold of middle-income group by 2035.According to the income forecast,the scales of rural and urban chronic low-income population in China in 2020 are 253 million and 138 million,equivalent to 49.57% of rural permanent population and 15.26% of urban permanent population respectively.By 2035,80 million rural chronic low-income population will enter cities,resulting in the rise of the proportion of urban chronic low-income population to 20.41%.Using household sample data,the disadvantaged characteristics of rural chronic low-income population are analyzed,as well as difficulties and obstacles facing by them.For chronic low-income population,the policy paths of “raising the lower” are to promote inclusive growth and shared prosperity.

关 键 词：低收入人口 持久性低收入人口 共同富裕 共享繁荣发展 收入预测 

分 类 号：F124.7[经济管理—世界经济]