嘉兴市某三甲医院体检中老年人群高血压患病的驱动因素模型构建  

Construction of a driving factor model of hypertension among physical examination middle-aged and elderly people in a top three hospital in Jiaxing City

作　　者：邸军军 沈亮 DI Junjun;SHEN Liang(Department of Hospital of the Chinese People's Armed Police Force Maritime Safety Bureau,Jiaxing,Zhejiang 314000,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]中国人民武装警察部队海警总队医院心血管内科,浙江嘉兴314000 [2]嘉兴市第一医院心内科,浙江嘉兴314000

出　　处：《中华全科医学》2023年第11期1880-1883,共4页Chinese Journal of General Practice

基　　金：浙江省基础公益研究计划项目(LGF19H020007)。

摘　　要：目的调查嘉兴市某三甲医院体检中老年人群高血压患病率现况并构建疾病发生驱动因素模型,为预防措施的制定提供依据。方法回顾性选择2019年12月-2022年6月于中国人民武装警察部队海警总队医院进行体检的5155例中老年人群进行研究,根据研究对象高血压发生情况,将其分为高血压组(2327例)和非高血压组(2828例)。调查中老年人群高血压患病率现况,通过单因素分析及多因素logistic回归分析法分析中老年人群高血压发生的危险因素,建立驱动因素模型,并绘制ROC曲线分析其对中老年人群高血压发生的预测价值。结果5155例中老年人群中患高血压者2327例,高血压患病率为45.14%。多因素logistic回归分析结果显示,年龄≥60岁、BMI>24、吸烟、高盐饮食、中心型肥胖、未经常运动、糖尿病、有高血压家族史为中老年人群高血压发生的危险因素(均P<0.05)。将上述因素纳入驱动因素模型:logit(P)=-14.158+年龄≥60岁×0.542+BMI>24×0.803+吸烟×0.609+高盐饮食×0.774+中心型肥胖×0.668+未经常运动×0.794+糖尿病×0.545+有高血压家族史×0.676,绘制ROC曲线,结果显示当logit(P)>16.81时,AUC为0.855。结论嘉兴市某三甲医院体检的中老年人群高血压患病率达45.14%,高血压发生的危险因素较多,据此建立驱动因素模型预测中老年人群高血压发生的价值较高。Objective To investigate the prevalence of hypertension among middle-aged and elderly people in a Level A Tertiary Hospital in Jiaxing City and to build a driving factor model for the development of preventive measures.Methods A total of 5155 middle-aged and elderly people who underwent a physical examination in Hospital of the Chinese People's Armed Police Force Maritime Safety Bureau from December 2019 to June 2022 were retrospectively selected for this study.According to the occurrence of hypertension,the subjects were divided into the hypertension group(2327 cases)and the non-hypertension group(2828 cases).Hypertension in middle-aged and elderly people was investigated,through the single-factor analysis and multifactor logistic regression analysis,the risk factors of middle-aged and elderly people,construction of driving factor model was established,and draw the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve analysis driven model predictive value for hypertension in middle-aged and elderly people.Results There were 2327 cases of hypertension among 5155 middle-aged and elderly people,the incidence of hypertension was 45.14%.The results of multivariate logistic analysis showed that age≥60 years old,BMI>24,smoking,high salt diet,central obesity,no regular exercise,diabetes,family history of hypertension were the risk factors for hypertension in middle-aged and elderly people(all P<0.05).Including the above factors in the driver model:logit(P)=-14.158+age≥60 years old×0.542+BMI>24×0.803+smoking×0.609+high salt diet×0.774+central obesity×0.668+no regular exercise×0.794+diabetes×0.545+family history of hypertension×0.676.The results of the ROC curve showed that when logit(P)>16.81,the area under the curve(AUC)was 0.855.Conclusion The incidence of hypertension in physical examination middle-aged and elderly people in a top three hospital in Jiaxing City could reach 45.14%,the risk factors for hypertension include many factors,it was of high value to build a driving factor model to predict the occurrence of

关 键 词：高血压 中老年 现况 危险因素 模型 受试者工作特征曲线 

分 类 号：R544.1[医药卫生—心血管疾病]