基于温湿变量的仁怀市气候变化特征与趋势分析  

Analysis on the Characteristics and Trend of Climate Change in Renhuai City Based on Temperature and Humidity Variables

作　　者：杨雨蒙 杨熠 张莉 罗晨艺 吴新豪 骆海顺 梅可远 穆彪[5] Yang Yumeng;Yang Yi;Zhang Li;Luo Chenyi;Wu Xinhao;Luo Haishun;Mei Keyuan;Mu Biao(Guizhou Meteorological Disaster Prevention Technology Center,Guiyang 550081,Guizhou,China;Zunyi Meteorological Bureau of Guizhou Province,Zunyi 563000,Guizhou,China;Renhuai Branch of Zunyi Ecological Environment Bureau,Renhuai 564500,Guizhou,China;Renhuai Meteorological Bureau of Guizhou Province,Renhuai 564501,Guizhou,China;College of Life Sciences,Guizhou University,Guiyang 550025,Guizhou,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州省气象灾害防御技术中心,贵州贵阳550081 [2]贵州省遵义市气象局,贵州遵义563000 [3]遵义市生态环境局仁怀市分局,贵州仁怀564500 [4]贵州省仁怀市气象局,贵州仁怀564501 [5]贵州大学生命科学学院,贵州贵阳550025

出　　处：《山地农业生物学报》2023年第6期9-17,共9页Journal of Mountain Agriculture and Biology

基　　金：仁怀市林业局项目(GZBL-CG22-A[2022-152]);贵州省气象局科研项目(黔气科登[2023]07-01);遵义市气象局科研项目(zyqxky[2021]14)。

摘　　要：基于ERA5资料(ECMWF Reanalysis v5,欧洲中期天气预报中心第五代大气再分析数据),从湿度、热力等方面对1979—2022年间仁怀市周边地区做气候分析,结合西南地区气候时空态分解划分气候变化敏感区。结果表明:赤水河流域及周边地区不同要素气候变化趋势相似:春季增湿(温),夏季达到顶峰,秋季开始回落。仁怀市受喇叭口地形及季风影响,5—6月降水达最大值。年最高温度出现在7—8月,高温降水错峰导致赤水河流域中段径流量减少。REOF(Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function,旋转经验正交函数分解)分析发现,西南地区四季温度呈年代际变化。春冬、夏秋降水有明显季节差异,前者为年际变化,后者为准年代际。自2000以后西南地区发生气候态位相转变,仁怀市处于全年增暖、夏秋少雨的气候敏感区内,该地干热复合事件出现概率上升。Based on the ERA5 data(ECMWF Reanalysis v5),the humidity and heating climate around Renhuai city were analyzed from 1979 to 2022,and the sensitive areas of climate change were divided according to the temporal-spatial state decomposition of climate in Southwest China.The results showed that the climate change trends of different elements around Chishui River basin were similar,with humidification(temperature)in Spring,peaks in Summer,and decline in Autumn.Renhuai city was affected by the trumpet topography and monsoon,and the precipitation reached its maximum value in May-June.The annual maximum temperature occurred in July-August,the staggered high temperature and precipitation lead to the decrease of runoff in the middle part of Chishui River basin.The results of REOF(Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function)analysis showed that the four seasons temperature in Southwest China was inter-decadal,and there were apparent seasonal differences in precipitation between spring and winter,summer and autumn,with inter-annual variations in the former,quasi-inter-decadal in the latter.Since 2000,a climate phase shift has occurred in Southwest China.Renhuai was in the climate-sensitive area with year-round warming and low rainfall in summer and autumn,the probability of dry-heat composite events in the area has increased.

关 键 词：气候变暖 REOF 赤水河流域 

分 类 号：P466[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]