基于随机森林的公交乘客让座行为影响因素分析  

A Random Forest-based Analysis of the Factors Influencing Public Transportation Passengers Seat Yielding Behavior

作　　者：张栋 钟仙玉 王小可 Baig Farrukh 隽海民 ZHANG Dong;ZHONG XianyU;WANG Xiaoke;Baig Farrukh;JUN Haimin(School of Traffic and Logistics,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China;School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering,Central South University,Changsha 410083,China;Dalian Spatial Planning and Design Co.Ltd.,Dalian 116013,China)

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学交通运输学院,大连116024 [2]中南大学交通运输工程学院,长沙410083 [3]大连市国土空间规划设计有限公司,大连116013

出　　处：《交通工程》2023年第6期35-44,共10页Journal of Transportation Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71701031);中国博士后基金(2022M720643).

摘　　要：包容性的公共交通服务要求更多的关注老年人、残疾人、孕妇或儿童等弱势人群的需要.由于弱势群体乘坐公共交通时可能会因为站立不稳而面临摔倒受伤的风险,因此,鼓励乘客为弱势人群让座是提高弱势人群对公共交通满意度的重要因素.本研究采用随机森林模型对通过在线问卷调查获得的404份有效答卷进行分析,探讨了个人为弱势人群让座决定的主观规范、外部激励和情景因素的影响.结果表明,主观规范(包括描述性规范及强制性规范)、情景因素(包括身体健康状况、车厢拥挤程度、待让座弱势乘客类型、让座后的站立时间)和激励因素(包括激励类型、方向、强度)会影响乘客的让座决策.研究还发现,乘客对残疾人和孕妇让座的意愿高于老人和儿童,而相对高强度的现金惩罚是促进乘客选择让座的最有效激励方式.研究提出了包括宣传、教育干预和激励机制在内的政策建议,以鼓励乘客为弱势群体让座.Inclusive public transport services require greater attention to the needs of vulnerable groups such as the elderly,disabled,pregnant women or children.Since vulnerable groups may face the risk of falling and injury due to unstable standing when taking public transportation,encouraging passengers to give up their seats for vulnerable groups is an important factor in improving the satisfaction of vulnerable groups with public transportation.In this study,a random forest model was used to analyze 404 valid responses obtained through an online questionnaire survey,and to explore the influence of subjective norms,external incentives,and situational factors on an individual s decision to give up a seat for a disadvantaged group.The results showed that subjective norms(including descriptive norms and mandatory norms),situational factors(including physical health status,degree of cabin congestion,types of vulnerable passengers waiting to give up seats,and standing time after giving up seats)and motivational factors(including motivational types,directions,and intensity)will affect the passenger s decision to give up seats.The study also found that passengers are more willing to give up seats for the disabled and pregnant women than for the elderly and children,and relatively high-intensity cash penalties are the most effective incentives for passengers to choose to give up their seats.The research suggests policy recommendations including awareness,educational interventions and incentives to encourage passengers to give up their seats for vulnerable groups.

关 键 词：包容性公共交通 让座行为 弱势群体 随机森林 

分 类 号：U12[交通运输工程]