基于灰色系统模型的浙江省人口老龄化预测与发展趋势分析  

Prediction and Development Trend Analysis of PopulationAgeing in Zhejiang Province Based on Grey System Model

作　　者：谭璇 李卫娜 Tan Xuan;Li Weina(Jiaxing Nanhu University,Jiaxing 314000,China)

机构地区：[1]嘉兴南湖学院,浙江嘉兴314000

出　　处：《黑龙江科学》2023年第21期45-49,共5页Heilongjiang Science

基　　金：嘉兴南湖学院2023年国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目“共同富裕背景下浙江省人口老龄化预测与养老保障体系研究”(238519014)阶段性成果。

摘　　要：为了预测2024—2031年浙江省及其所辖11个城市的人口老龄化发展趋势,运用灰色系统模型进行了分析。目前,浙江省老龄化程度增长较快,到2031年,浙江省60岁及以上人口将接近1838万,增长速度可达3.6%,远高于总人口的年增长速度0.6%,各城市间的人口老龄化差别将越来越明显。不同城市应根据实际情况采取合理措施,科学认识人口老龄化,积极探索切实可行的多层次养老保障体系。In order to predict the development trend of population ageing in Zhejiang Province and its 11 cities from 2024 to 2031,the study uses grey system model.At present,ageing degree of Zhejiang Province is growing rapidly.By 2031,the population aged 60 and above in Zhejiang Province will be close to 18.38 million,with a growth rate of 3.6%,which is much higher than the annual growth rate of 0.6%of the total population.The trend of population aging difference among cities will become more and more obvious.Different cities should take reasonable measures according to the actual situation,scientifically know the aging population,and actively explore practical multi-level pension security system.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 人口增长率 总人口 养老保障 浙江省 灰色系统模型 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]