基于NPP-VIIRS数据的我国2012—2020年电力消费量时空动态模拟  

Spatiotemporal Dynamics Simulation of Electric Power Consumption in Chinafrom 2012 to 2020 Based on NPP-VIIRS Data

作　　者：胡稳 杨彩云 李静 黄勇 Hu Wen;Yang Caiyun;Li Jing;Huang Yong(Research Center for Eco-environmental Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100000,China;The Third Surveying and Mapping Institute of Guizhou,Guiyang 550000,China;CAS-OASIS Ecological Engineering Technology Co.Ltd,Beijing 100000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院生态环境研究中心,北京100000 [2]贵州省第三测绘院,贵阳550000 [3]中科绿洲(北京)生态工程技术有限公司,北京100000

出　　处：《黑龙江科学》2023年第22期21-26,31,共7页Heilongjiang Science

摘　　要：夜间灯光数据能够有效探测城市夜间灯光,可用于估算电力消耗(EPC)的空间分布。各地区自然环境及社会发展差异大,夜间灯光与EPC的关系也存在地区差异。以我国为例,构建不同区域EPC长期时空动态最优模型,使用基于NPP-VIIRS数据构建的夜间灯光总量(TNL),采用线性模型、二次多项式模型及幂函数模型对2012—2020年EPC的时空动态进行模拟。结果表明,在国家层面,二次多项式模型为最优,平均绝对相对误差(MARE)最小,为1.94%;在省级层面,最优拟合模型一般为二次多项式模型,平均MARE值为2.78%。31个省份中,二次多项式模型最优的有24个,线性模型最优的有4个,幂函数模型仅有3个。本研究使用精度更高的NPP-VIIRS夜间灯光数据,为准确模拟EPC数据的长期时空动态提供了一种思路,对反映社会经济活动中电力利用效益的提高所取得的成效分析具有重要意义。Through nighttime light data,we can detect the city lights at night.It can be used to estimate the spatial distribution of electric power consumption(EPC).The natural environment and social development vary greatly in different regions,and there are regional differences in the relationship between night lighting and EPC.Through taking China as an example,the study constructs the long-term spatio-temporal dynamic optimal model of EPC in different regions,and the total amount of night light(TNL)based on NPP-VIIRS data;simulates the spatio-temporal dynamics of EPC from 2012 to 2020 with linear model,quadratic polynomial model and power function model.The results show that at the country level,the quadratic polynomial model is the best,and the mean absolute relative error(MARE)is the smallest(1.94%).At the provincial level,the best-fitting model is generally a quadratic polynomial model with an average MARE value of 2.78%.Among the 31 provinces,there are 24 optimal quadratic polynomial models,4 optimal linear models and only 3 optimal power function models.In this study,NPP-VIIRS night light data with higher accuracy is used to provide a way to accurately simulate the long-term space-time dynamics of EPC data,which is of great significance to reflect the effect analysis of the improvement of power utilization efficiency in social and economic activities.

关 键 词：夜间灯光 NPP-VIIRS 电力消费量 时空动态模拟 最优回归模型 

分 类 号：P237[天文地球—摄影测量与遥感]