张家口市各区县用水结构时空演变及其驱动因素分析  

Analysis on evolution and driving factors of water consumption structure of districts and counties in Zhangjiakou City

作　　者：张佳磊 李彦学 刘德富 周小国 丁一凡 曾一恒 张文祺 ZHANG Jialei;LI Yanxue;LIU Defu;ZHOU Xiaoguo;DING Yifan;ZENG Yiheng;ZHANG Wenqi(College of Civil and Environmental,Hubei University of Technology,Wuhan 430068,China;Changjiang Eco-environmental Protection Group Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan 430062,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北工业大学土木建筑与环境学院,湖北武汉430068 [2]长江生态环保集团有限公司,湖北武汉430062

出　　处：《水资源保护》2023年第6期145-151,177,共8页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：中国三峡集团有限公司科研项目(HB/ZB2021156);国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2017ZX07101003-008)。

摘　　要：以张家口市14个区县为研究区域,分析其用水量和用水结构时空演变特征并据此划分区县类型,运用偏最小二乘法(PLS)分析不同类型区县用水量和用水结构的驱动因素及其阈值。结果表明:2005—2025年间张家口各区县用水量和用水结构维持稳定,用水结构整体处于相对均衡状态;各区县间存在极显著差异,依据用水量和用水结构时空演变特征划分为用水状态最优组(用水量低、均衡度高)、良好组(用水量低、均衡度低)、中等组(用水量高、均衡度高)和及格组(用水量高、均衡度低);社会因素(总人口、城镇人口和农村人口数量)和经济因素(耕地面积)分别是所有类型区县用水量和用水结构的关键驱动因素,制定总体用水规划方案时通过政策引导用水量较高区县人口向较低区县流动,制定不同类型区县的用水定额,鼓励用水量较高区县种植低耗水的经济作物并推进节水技术的应用,可以优化人口数量和结构并调整耕地面积,实现用水量减少、均衡度提高的规划目标。Taking the 14 districts(counties)in Zhangjiakou city as the study area,the evolution and driving factors of water consumption and structure were analyzed by using the partial least squares(PLS).The results show that the water consumption and equilibrium degree of Zhangjiakou city are stable from 2005 to 2025,and the water consumption structure tended to relatively balanced.There are significant difference among the 14 districts(counties).The study area are divided into the following four types according to the characteristics of water consumption and structure:the optimal area(low water consumption and high equilibrium),the good area(low water consumption and low equilibrium),the medium area(high water consumption and high equilibrium)and the qualified area(high water consumption and low equilibrium).Social(total population,rural and urban population)and economic(cultivated area)factors are the main driving factors affecting the water consumption and structure,respectively.Improving population and crop structure,formula water consumption quota,and promoting advanced water-saving technologies are effective control measures of water consumption planning to realize the efficient utilization of water sources and balance of water consumption structure.

关 键 词：用水量 均衡度 偏最小二乘法 驱动因素 用水规划 张家口市 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]