人口年龄结构变动对住房需求的影响机制研究——基于浙江省数据的分析  

The Influence Mechanism of Population Age Structure Change on Housing Demand--Based on the analysis of Zhejiang Province data

作　　者：付荣[1] 邓冬 FU Rong;DENG Dong

机构地区：[1]杭州电子科技大学经济学院

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2023年第5期109-112,共4页Price:Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“我国居民住房租赁消费核算及对宏观经济影响研究”(20BTJ005)阶段性成果。

摘　　要：随着我国人口自然结构呈现出的新特征愈发明显,住房需求也在逐渐发生改变。研究人口年龄结构变动对住房需求的影响,有利于推动房地产市场高质量发展。本文以浙江省为例,构建双向固定效应模型,研究人口年龄结构对住房需求的作用机制,实证分析发现:老龄化对住房需求在短期内有正向影响,而随着老龄化的加剧,影响将变为负向;少年人口增加对住房需求的影响受房价控制,房价的攀升将削弱少年人口比对住房需求的正向影响。当房价过高时少年人口比对住房需求将产生负向影响。基于此,应完善老年福利体系,建设满足老年人居住需求的住宅和与居住环境适配的基础设施;降低多孩家庭经济负担,完善多孩家庭住房福利体系。As the new characteristics of the natural structure of China's population become more and more obvious,the demand for housing is also gradually changing.Studying the impact of population change on housing demand is conducive to promoting the high-quality development of the real estate market.Taking Zhejiang Province as an example,this study constructs a two-way fixed effect model to study the mechanism of population age structure on housing demand.Empirical analysis shows that aging has a positive impact on housing demand in the short term,and with the intensification of aging,the impact will become negative.The impact of the increase of juvenile population on housing demand is controlled by housing price,and the rise of housing price will weaken the positive impact of juvenile population ratio on housing demand.When housing prices are too high,the teenage population will have a negative impact on housing demand.Based on this,relevant departments in China should improve the welfare system for the elderly,build housing that meets the living needs of the elderly and infrastructure that adapts to the living environment,reduce the economic burden of families with multiple children,and improve the housing welfare system for families with multiple children.

关 键 词：人口年龄结构 住房需求 房价 双向固定效应 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济] C924.2[社会学—人口学]