中国玉米种子供需形势分析与未来展望  

Analysis and Future Prospects of Supply and Demand of Chinese Corn Seeds

作　　者：邱军[1] 王术坤 景琦 张力科[1] 孙全 QIU Jun;WANG Shu-kun;JING Qi;ZHANG Li-ke;SUN Quan(National Agro-Tech Extension and Service Center,Beijing 100125,China;Rural Development Institute,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732,China)

机构地区：[1]全国农业技术推广服务中心,北京100125 [2]中国社会科学院农村发展研究所,北京100732

出　　处：《粮油食品科技》2023年第6期163-168,共6页Science and Technology of Cereals,Oils and Foods

基　　金：国家自然科学青年基金项目(72003194);财政部和农业农村部国家现代农业产业技术体系项目(CARS-36);国家自然科学基金面上项目(72073130)。

摘　　要：2016年以来,玉米种业逐步进入并度过产能过剩阶段,制种面积和产量呈现先降后升趋势,种子供求比例于2022年销售季后降至历史低点。种子生产形势表现出制种基地分布集中、品种需求呈两极化趋势、种子销售价格和生产成本持续上升等特点。2023年玉米种子供应数量充足,少数优质品种供需偏紧,不同区域略有差异。从当前和国内发展形势来看,预计未来玉米种子市值将保持在300亿元以上高位;种子供求关系稳定在良性发展区间;品种选择从供给导向转变为需求导向;种子市场价格继续增加;行业兼并重组加快,集中度逐步提升。Since 2016,the corn seed industry has gradually passed the stage of overcapacity,and the area and output of seed production have shown a trend of first decline and second rise.The ratio of seed supply and demand reached a record low after the 2022 sales season.The seed production situation showed the characteristics of concentrated distribution of seed production bases,polarization of variety demand,and continuous increase in seed sales prices and production costs.In 2023,the supply of corn seeds is sufficient,and a few high-quality varieties are in short supply,with slight differences in different regions.From the current situation and domestic development,it is expected that the market value of corn seeds will remain above CNY 30 billion in the future;the supply-demand relationship of seeds will remain stable in the benign development range;the variety selection will shift from supply-oriented to demand-oriented;the seed market price will continue to increase;industry mergers and reorganizations will accelerate,and concentration will gradually increase.

关 键 词：玉米种子 供需形势 优质品种 未来展望 

分 类 号：F303.2[经济管理—产业经济]