人员国际流动、购买力平价与实际汇率波动  

International People Flow,Purchasing Power Parity and Real Exchange Rate Volatility

作　　者：周琢[1] 徐建炜[2] ZHOU Zhuo;XU Jianwei

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院世界经济研究所 [2]北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2023年第10期160-174,共15页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：上海市社会科学规划年度课题“以高级要素提升我国产业链、供应链安全性研究”(2021BGJ004)。

摘　　要：尽管数字技术在现代通信中日益占据重要地位,但人员国际流动对信息的交互依然发挥着不可替代的作用。本文从人员国际流动的视角来解释宏观金融中的实际汇率波动。本文认为人员国际流动提高了两地间产品信息的透明度,加深了消费者对产品价格的认知,进而降低了两地产品层面的实际汇率波动。本文基于1990—2018年的面板数据考察人员国际流动对实际汇率波动的影响,运用双边期初签证作为工具变量,验证了相关逻辑机制。研究发现:第一,人员国际流动显著降低了实际汇率波动,大约能解释样本期内实际汇率波动均值的9.14%;第二,人员国际流动下降一个标准差可使“北上广”实际汇率波动均值上升1.3%。本研究有助于学界进一步理解地缘政治影响下人员国际流动受限对宏观金融的影响。Despite the increasing importance of digital technologies in modern communication,people still believe that international people flow plays an irreplaceable role in the exchange of information.This paper attempts to explain real exchange rate fluctuations in macro-finance from the perspective of international people flow.This paper argues that international people flow increases transparency of product information between two places,improves consumers'awareness of product prices,and thus reduces fluctuations in bilateral product-level real exchange rates.Based on the panel data from 1990 to 2018,this paper examines the impact of international people flow on real exchange rate volatility,uses initial bilateral visa issuances as an instrumental variable to verify the logic and finds:first,international people flow significantly reduces real exchange rate volatility,explaining about 9.14%of the sample mean of real exchange rate volatility.Second,a one standard deviation decline in international people flow increases the real exchange rate volatility of"Beijing-Shanghai-Guangzhou"by 1.3%on average.The significance of this study is to further understand the impact of restricted people flow under geopolitics on macro-finance.

关 键 词：人员国际流动 实际汇率波动 一价定律 消费者产品认知 搜寻成本 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]