贵港市2007—2021年男男同性性行为人群艾滋病流行的时空聚集性分析  

Spatial-temporal clustering analysis of HIV/AIDS among men who have sex with men in Guigang City from 2007 to 2021

作　　者：邓本本 黄运轩[1] 韦发双[1] 覃春伟[1] 徐月香[1] 陈永锋[1] 刘家伟 蒋俊俊[2] 苏锦明 Deng Benben;Huang Yunxuan;Wei Fashuang;Qin Chunwei;Xu Yuexiang;Chen Yongfeng;Liu Jiawei;Jiang Junjun;Su Jinming(Guigang Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Guigang 537100,China;AIDS Research Center of Guangxi Medical University,Nanning 530021,China)

机构地区：[1]贵港市疾病预防控制中心,贵港537100 [2]广西医科大学艾滋病研究中心,南宁530021

出　　处：《广西医科大学学报》2023年第10期1764-1770,共7页Journal of Guangxi Medical University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(No.81971935,No.82103898);广西科技计划项目(No.桂科AD21220013)。

摘　　要：目的:分析2007—2021年贵港市男男同性性行为人群(MSM)艾滋病病毒/艾滋病(HIV/AIDS)人口学及时空分布特征,为贵港市艾滋病防控提供依据。方法:收集中国疾病预防控制信息系统中2007—2021年贵港市MSM HIV/AIDS数据,以乡镇为单位,采用描述性流行病学分析人口学特征和发病情况,采用ArcGIS10.7软件进行空间自相关分析。结果:2007—2021年贵港市累计报告MSM艾滋病病例338例,新报告MSM病例数从1例增至43例,其构成比从0.16%增至5.26%,15年增长32.90倍,整体呈上升趋势(χ^(2)_(趋势)=102.874,P<0.001)。全局自相关分析显示,贵港市MSM艾滋病病例存在空间聚集性(Moran’s I=0.116,Z=2.096,P=0.036),并存在高值聚集(G=0.000 008,Z=4.196,P<0.01)。热点分析发现,热点区域主要集中在中西部,其次在东北部乡镇或街道。结论:贵港市MSM AIDS流行呈上升趋势,并存在空间聚集性和热点区域,应对热点区域进行重点防控,加强MSM的干预工作。Objective:To analyse the demography and spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome(HIV/AIDS)among men who have sex with men(MSM)in Guigang City from 2007 to 2021 and provide evidence for the prevention and control of HIV/AIDS in Guigang City.Methods:The data on HIV/AIDS cases among MSM in Guigang City from 2007 to 2021 were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention.Descriptive epidemiology was used to analyse the demographic characteristics and incidence,and ArcGIS10.7 software was used for spatial autocorrelation analysis.Results:A total of 338 AIDS cases were reported among MSM in Guigang City from 2007 to 2021.The number of newly reported MSM cases increased from 1 to 43 each year,and the constituent ratio increased from 0.16%to 5.26%,with a 32.90-fold increase over 15 years.The overall trend was upwards(χ^(2)_(trend)=102.874,P<0.001).Global autocorrelation analysis showed that there was spatial clustering(Moran's I=0.116,Z=2.096,P=0.036)and high clustering(G=0.000008,Z=4.196,P<0.01)of HIV/AIDS cases among MSM in Guigang City.The hot spot analysis found that the“hot spot”area was mainly concentrated in the midwest,followed by the northeast township or street.Conclusion:The prevalence of AIDS among MSM in Guigang City is on the rise,and there are spatial clustering and hot spots.The prevention and control of HIV in hot spots should be focused on,and the intervention for MSM should be strengthened.

关 键 词：男男同性性行为 艾滋病 地理信息系统 空间自相关分析 

分 类 号：R512.91[医药卫生—内科学] R181.3[医药卫生—临床医学]