金融发展、人力资本积累与经济增长  

Financial Development,Human Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth

作　　者：戴淑庚[1] 胡文涛 李辉 Dai Shugeng;Hu Wentao;Li Hui

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院金融系 [2]厦门大学经济学院国际贸易系 [3]合肥工业大学经济学院国际经济与贸易系

出　　处：《统计研究》2023年第10期83-95,共13页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“金融扩大开放部署下我国金融风险传导及防控研究”(20CJY065);国家社会科学基金项目“金融高水平开放进程中系统性金融风险的传播路径及防范对策研究”(22BJY168)。

摘　　要：本文尝试构建一个内生增长模型,从人力资本积累视角探究金融发展对经济增长的非线性门限效应。在此基础上,基于我国30个省份2000—2020年面板数据,构建能够克服解释变量与门限变量同时具有内生性的动态面板门限模型进行实证分析。研究结果表明,第一,无论是全国范围还是分东、中、西部区域,人力资本积累均对经济增长产生显著的驱动作用。第二,我国金融发展与经济增长之间的关系显著存在基于人力资本积累的双门限效应。当人力资本积累处在低于最小门限值的低水平区制时,金融发展对经济增长的影响显著为负;当人力资本积累介于最小与最大门限值区制时,金融发展对经济增长的影响开始转正但并不显著;当人力资本积累处在高于最大门限值的高水平区制时,金融发展对经济增长具有显著的提升作用。第三,各地区人力资本积累水平差异是造成金融发展的经济增长绩效存在显著区域异质性的重要原因,各地区金融发展对经济增长的影响大小与方向取决于各自人力资本积累处于何种区制类型。本文最后基于理论与实证研究结论给出了相应的政策建议。This paper constructs an endogenous growth model that analyzes the nonlinear threshold effect of financial development on economic growth from the perspective of human capital accumulation.Based on theoretical study,we adopt the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2020 to construct a dynamic panel threshold regression model,and the model which can solve explanatory variables and threshold variables and is endogenous to conduct empirical test.Firstly,human capital accumulation has a significant positive effect on economic growth around the whole country and in eastern,central and western regions alike.Secondly,a significant double-threshold effect based on human capital accumulation exists in the impact of financial development on economic growth.The financial development has a significant inhibitory effect on the economic growth when human capital accumulation is below the minimum threshold.The financial development is positively but not insignificantly correlated with economic growth when the human capital accumulation lies between the minimum and the maximum threshold.The financial development can significantly enhance the economic growth when human capital accumulation exceeds the maximum threshold.Thirdly,the human capital accumulation gap is the main reason to bring about significant regional difference in the economic growth effect of financial development,the strength and direction of impacts of financial development on economic growth depend on which numerical interval their respective human capital accumulation level is in.Finally,based on theoretical and empirical conclusions,this paper gives some relevant policy proposals.

关 键 词：金融发展 人力资本积累 经济增长 FD-GMM估计 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学] F240